August 9, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | El Dulce | 1.60 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Quest for Fire | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Preston Court | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Letzgometz | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yes and Yes | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Quintarelli | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smooth Tales | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Raphael | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | No Regrets | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Macca Tree | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Creative Genius | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Super Silver | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bebeau | 1.80 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oso Negro | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Sneads | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ninja Dust | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Freedom Prince | 3.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Burn and Turn | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dreammaster | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Red Right Hand | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stock Trade | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willing to Speed | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Snap Hook | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Halstaat | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hampton Point | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Much Trouble | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Claytnthelionheart | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Derby Memories | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shandian | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Love Me Tomorrow | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lord Camden | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fly Fly Away | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Very Replaceable | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Rudy Go | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | First Deputy | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2B | 10 | Kierkegaard | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stone Guitar | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Perfect Banker | 15.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Legend of Bam | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Portfolio Hedge | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Turbo Drive | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | More Like It | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mosienko | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 16 | True Grace | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lone Sailor | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flowers for Lisa | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spinoff | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cairo Cat | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Backsideofthemoon | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Control Group | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lighthawk | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Divided Sky (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love of My Heart | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Voting Agreement | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Indochine | 5.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Into Me | 8.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our Little Jewel | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boston Beauties (IRE) | 6.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Leaveuwithasmile | 12.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Star Command | 12.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | La Negrita | 15.00 | 15 | 28-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Raggedy Annie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mom’s Pass | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Water White | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Palace Avenger | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Nikki My Angel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Shareholder Value | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Big Muddy | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Eagle Pass | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Scarf It Down | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hollywood Critic | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bolita Boyz | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Starship Zeus | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sandy Lane | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Armament | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Javelin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Shut the Box | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1 | Malakeh (GB) | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Binti Al Nar (GER) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Dream Passage | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Tanya’s Gem | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Victorine (FR) | 2.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Andina Del Sur | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Posse Needed | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Pauseforthecause | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Miss Mystique | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Daria’s Angel | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Peaches and Spice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | South of France | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Tale Of The Cat S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | He Hate Me | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Killybegs Captain | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pat On the Back | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bon Raison | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ruler of the Nile | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uno Mas Modelo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Eight Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | All Quality | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Passing Out | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Panther Hit | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Enjay’s Brass | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dance Till Dawn | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Devious Charm | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dancing Vega (IRE) | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brucia La Terra | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foolish Living | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elle’s Town | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tip At Tapit | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Getmotherarose | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | La Chancla | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Graceful Princess | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Slimey | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Figure It Out | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.