August 8, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Face of Victory | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Surf Shack | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | River Cactus | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Skycraft | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hannity | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sea Rover | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | And Won | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bird Dog | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Johnny Chadda | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Day | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Watch Me Smok’em | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jazz Music | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Libor Plus | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tuff Attack | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prince Attack | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Twin Turbo | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Johnny Cab | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Mae Day | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prime Nite | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Country Jazz | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Bad Doc | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Huey Attack | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Go Little Gert Go | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mind Trappe | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run Your Race | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ohio Player | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Al | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drama Star | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jobim | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Two Pair | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Selinda | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stormy Empire | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flower House | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Julia’s Temple | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Swiss Dot | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Marchenwald | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bird Key | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Recount | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Savage Battle | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Boyfriend Material | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Scarlet City | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fareeq | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Commish | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gins and Tins | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Golden Gift | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Irish Proud | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Letthebigshot Roll | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fort Dixie | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fleetway | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr D’s Way | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Big Dinner | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pamir | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Revolt | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Fort Commander | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Alpha Boy | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Workingforaliving | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ghost Position | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Justenufftuff | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Suzdal | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maxus | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hero of Fire | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hide the Evidence | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Pest Pal | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Round Hill | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.