August 4, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pure Wow | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Daphne Moon | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Weekend Fun | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foreign Exchange | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ill Will | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Dime | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mirabell Mei | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Love That Jazz | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Adulation | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Data Driven | 1.60 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Getoffmyback | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curious Cal | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Professor Snape | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orpheus (ARG) | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A Different Style | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – John Morrissey S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Gold for the King | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saratoga Giro | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Build to Suit | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eye Luv Lulu | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Celtic Chaos | 3.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | T Loves a Fight | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vincento | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Osaka Girl | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Swanage | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sparkling Sky | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bridal Path | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sketches of Spain (IRE) | 2.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Livin At the Beach | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Situation Room | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Miss My Macho | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Crystalle | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tonapita | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Waya S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Santa Monica (GB) | 1.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fools Gold | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gentle Ruler | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Get Explicit | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Theodora B. | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sky Full of Stars (GER) | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Blue Belt | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tribecca | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Candid Desire | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Caretaker | 3.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Gypsum Johnny | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summer Bourbon | 4.50 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Manifest Destiny | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Playthatfunnymusic | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sundae On Sunday | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proletariat | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | O Shea Can U See | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pagliacci | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Adonis Creed | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Battle Station | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stolen Pistol | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | I’m Corfu | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Aveenu Malcainu | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Final Frontier | 2.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tibr | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ghoul (BRZ) | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shiny Copper Penny | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fuel the Bern | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ruler of the Nile | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sudden Surprise | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Chiclet’s Dream | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Noble Jewel | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Way Smart | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rumor Driven | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Summer Squeeze | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Love and Love | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Discreet Image | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Star of the East | 8.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moyne Spun | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | A Little Faith | 3.50 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lem Me Have It | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ascender | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Abraxan | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Barrel of Destiny | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Grand Banks | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Behind the Couch | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Saratoga Derby Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Digital Age (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Henley’s Joy | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Flying Scotsman | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Thread of Blue | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Social Paranoia | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seismic Wave | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rockemperor (IRE) | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eons | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cape of Good Hope (IRE) | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kadar | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mohawk (IRE) | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Adirondack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Alibi | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frank’s Rockette | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Fly | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Magic Dance | 1.40 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Integral | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mylastfirstkiss | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Peppina | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Q | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Doswell | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malthael | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Downside Risk | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Standup | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Point of Humor | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Southern Bridge | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Good Governance (GB) | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Embellisher | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Asdaaf | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cardiff Cay | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ownitifyouwantit | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Duress | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bad Dude | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Patagonia | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Motataabeq | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.