August 4, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Heisfancy | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Liberal Lunacy | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Prince Abubu | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jackfruit | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Dark Ninja | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tres Generaciones | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Orcus | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sacramento Q | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shakurr | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miracle Mountain | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Willow Ridge | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rio Seco | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zanforce | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Word of Truth | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Match Play | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Richard | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Richiesonarampage | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Offlee Fun | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oh So Tall | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Back Page | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Striking Heir | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | French Minded | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Burnside | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | P R Radio Star | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Milk Chocolate | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Grey Mask | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Just a Coinkydink | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ravens Reflection | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Rover | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Waters | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Yeowomen | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Enchanted Sunrise | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | White Birch | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ms Meer | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Grace | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ben’s Little Cupid | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brilliant One | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Klink | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rock Can Tour | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Prairie Chief | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Little Mighty Man | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Way Home | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Omar Attack | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Demand Ransom | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lee’s Luck | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Z U Soon | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Run | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Fort Marsh | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Luvin Bullies | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bizzee Mischief | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Thoughtless | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flat Meadow | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Envelope | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lil Rum Tum | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Holy Legal (BRZ) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Riv | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Iker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Bordini | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Ferlin Husky | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gray Mensch | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Legendary Larry | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kyzan | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Romeo O Romeo | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Croce d’Oro | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Franklin County | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.