July 26, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Amazing Annie | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Superstar Bea | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pure Blarney | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lion Love | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Firewater Rocket | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Country Assets | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Of Note | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Sway | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sky Freak | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Satiate | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pretty At War | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maid for Mischief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Superstar Diva | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Token Vow | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dance | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kenai Cool | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frosty Friend | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tomasita | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ruffina | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Something Kinky | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Warrior’s Way | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sea Dream (BRZ) | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ragatagtag | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prado’s Encore | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Jilly | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dame of Thrones | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kuringai | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sharperthanme | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cooler Schedule | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Paulette | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Codetowin | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brother Cesare | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hart Hills Road | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alpha Boy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Pappy | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Colonel Fred | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Workingforaliving | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hero of Fire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Landing Gear | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Full Count | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Now That’s a Benny | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Esther | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Moon Over Cabo | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Je Suis Belle | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rake It Up | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wildwood Scat | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rosie Bear | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Wishes | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Last Spring | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Homer | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Marvelous Sky | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Valid Storm | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Fire | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wellfield | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Prince | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Party On Dude | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Temple Zip | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.