July 24, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Jonathan Kiser Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lord Justice (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elucidation (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Help From Heaven | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Our Legend (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Redicean (GB) | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Storm Team | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Corky Lemon | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Arch My Boy (GB) | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boss Man | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sportswear (GB) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Belisarius (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Golani Brigade | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Luna’s in Charge | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Financialstability | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Moonlight Now | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dancers for Token | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Honest Toun | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Clear the Ramp | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top of the Mint | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Freaky Styley | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Constructor | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Jen’s Battle | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sky Kitten | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mazal Eighteen | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Dustinthewind | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Adriatic Holiday | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | More Than Silver | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Beyond Brown | 2.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4A | 2 | Lil Morning Star | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Apollo’s Abraxas | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Classical Rose | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Let It Slide | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sassy Little Lila | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Annals of Time | 0.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Have At It | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | King Zachary | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Aquaphobia | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7A | 4 | Zapperini | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Devamani (FR) | 3.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tour de Force | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Control Group | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lenstar | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dr. Hipp | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Giant Boo Boo | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indigo Yankee | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cape Lookout | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surface Strike | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mohican | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frammento | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Passcode | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Another Miracle | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Irish Mias | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Blackberry Wine | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Close Shave | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Shackleford’s Joy | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Hemlock | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Like It | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Get Set | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Alfie Solomons | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Now Is | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Chimney Rock | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Proven Strategies | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Funny Guy | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rinaldi | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Six Percent | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Smooth Tales | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bettor Bank On It | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Albie | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dashing Dan | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Honorable Hero | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Money | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Blindwillie McTell | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Honorable Miss H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Chalon | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mia Mischief | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ours to Run | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Minit to Stardom | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honey Bunny | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pacific Gale | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Enthusiastic Gal | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mentality | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Really Proud | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Violent Times | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Miss Mystique | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pastime | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Victorias Fire | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Annie Rocks | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | China Rider | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leah’s Dream | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Risky Mandate | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Private Beach | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Stifle Yourself | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Proximity Bias | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sinwaan | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fair Regis | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Take Charge Aubrey | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hollywood Glory | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10A | 7 | Out of Orbit | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Our Circle of Love | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | No Deal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Diamond Crazy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Surging Tide | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Well Hello | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.