July 20, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lady Express | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kenai Cool | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Laverns Lass | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Little Spitfire | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Polly War Cry | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ms Meer | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brilliant One | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nobody Move | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Revolt | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Joey B | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regal Kitten | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Commander | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maligator | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Little Baltar | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smokey Row Mac | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Santa Americana | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fleetway | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Haney | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Timingiseverything | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rock Can Tour | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cat’s Runaway | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Omar Attack | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little Mighty Man | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Supermans Cape | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Prince Abubu | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Swither’s Shortcut | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Singanothersong | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shanghai Point | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Blue Note | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Mexico Memories | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Christmas Cookie | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Drama Star | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Round Hill | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roar of the Lion | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Volgograd | 20.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yourdecisionotmine | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jimmy D | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sacred Legacy | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Al Taweel | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Colonel Fred | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High On Sugar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Angelino | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Justenufftuff | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Good Intent | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Maxus | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Mike Spellman Memorial H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Game Time Decision | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kool Kate | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Embarrassing | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Babybluesbdancing | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jolee | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strollin the Bayou | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ima Little Kitten | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Applique | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chlobee | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Logi | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Black Tie Affair H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cammack | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Memory Bank | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’task Don’ttell | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Christian C | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hannity | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ragatagtag | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Prado’s Encore | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Keeneasabean | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Samis Car | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Alexa | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kuringai | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Canton Comet | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fortressa | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cooler Schedule | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Paulette | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Annie Time Girl | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hero Alexandra | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Track Magic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.