July 18, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Golden Tiger | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smile Bryan | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Senor Jobim | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zealous | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | After You | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shock Therapy | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Beyond Gone | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | January Won | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Justintimeforwine | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jamflowman | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dan the Man Can | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ninth of April | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big’s Gray Day | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Stillwater S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Time Limit | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Classy Sadie | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fierce Lady | 0.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Italian Rabbi | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jewel of Arabia | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jen’s Battle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | He’s No Lemon | 1.60 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Extrordinary Jerry | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Everyonelovesjames | 2.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trinity (FR) | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Carom | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Channel Island | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mills | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Halloween Horror | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Chief Know It All | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Barleewon | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turbo Drive | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shandian | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fly Fly Away | 3.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Power Up Paynter | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | City Man | 2.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tapizearance | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diannesimpazible | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Imperio D | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | More Like It | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kelleycanrun | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Girlfriend Rocket | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smooth With a Kick | 1.60 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Estill | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sara Sea | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | We Are Family | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hightailing | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | Sobersick N Sorry | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Deputy Flag | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Laughing Manners | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Bulwark | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Lorcan | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Chuckles | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Wonder | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Burkey’s Bro | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ellas Ghost | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Betsy’s Beau | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Danzante | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Capt. Courageous | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Alphastest | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Blue Parrot | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wicked Grin | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Seven Is Heaven | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Magnificent McCool | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shootin the Breeze | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jerome Avenue | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Bull | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | King Ottokar | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kid Lemuel | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Swamp Rat | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10B | 9 | Spirit Animal | 2.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 11B | 10 | Value Proposition (GB) | 2.00 | 15 | 28-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Kadar | 6.00 | 20.3 | 38-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Opry | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tapit Wise | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Johny’s Bobby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Flowers for Lisa | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Roaming Union | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Proven Reserves | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hofburg | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Royal Albert Hall (GB) | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Felix in Fabula | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Vincento | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Sunshine Gal | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Kept True | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | Tudox Lifting Off | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 14A | 7 | Timely Tradition | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | High Jingo | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 16A | 9 | Hay Field | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Bertranda | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 4 | Forever Changed | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Camorra | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ohmygollymsmolly | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | First Appeal | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mama Mary | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Merlins Muse | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Stonefactor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Amanda Lane | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Sadie Lady | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.