July 18, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Yabba Dabba Dude | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Day | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Talking Zip | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Battalstown | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Foggy Albion | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Creme de Cerise | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cast a Stone | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Touch of Disney | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Our Thomas | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Storminside | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiz Samurai | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gettysburg | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Travel West | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Bonita Springs | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Northern Alliance | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Bahama Kitten | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Goddess of Kip | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Real de Jalpa | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Edisto Island | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Tinderella | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tam | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | R Four O One K | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Sacramento Q | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Oh So Tall | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Offlee Fun | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Back Page | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Striking Heir | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | New Atlas | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Speared | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Mind Trappe | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ohio Player | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Al | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Im the Best I Know | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Willow Ridge | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Greenhorn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Prince Arlo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Sambucca | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Hawk’s Image | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cast Iron | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Afleet Spring | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 3 | Croce d’Oro | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Little Baltar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Macho Alpha | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Guard Your Grill | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Savie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Runningfromthefeds | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Exprompt (FR) | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Arrival | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pont Du Gard | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | River Cactus | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stella d’Oro | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Days of Glory | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Contraction | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Thunderous Gem | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Esther | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Glamour Gal | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shilah Baby | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Gray Owl | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Ruler | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Midnight Sway | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mucha Mezquina | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Snattered | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.