July 14, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Sweet Melania | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Morning Gold | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Days of Spring | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Miss Marissa | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Foreign Exchange | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Lucky Jingle | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sign of the Times | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pearlescent | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cat’s Pajamas | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Imincomunicado | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Passcode | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Talent Scout | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Elios Milos | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mandatory Payout | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Keeping the Peace | 2.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin to Be Loved | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hot Mesa | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Straphanger | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Belleville Spring | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Risp | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bears Mafia | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crack Shot | 2.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Boar | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wild William | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Call Me Harry | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unlikely | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bulwark | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Adios Amigos | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bassman Dave | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blame the Cake | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Boy | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bank On Shea | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Titan’s Will | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Destiny | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | No Salt | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | South Africa | 5.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kobe | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Positive Skew | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Free to Fly | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Zabava | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Retro Street | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Zandora | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Decorated Ace | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sundrenched | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tempers Way | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharpin | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tappanzee | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Slimey | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Destiny Over Fate | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fetching | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hit a Provisional | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flush | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grand Banks | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Singular Sensation | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dooder | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cheatham Hill | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Jen | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Danielle’s Pride | 12.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 12A | 11 | Lady Love | 4.00 | 17 | 32-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Barrel of Destiny | 4.00 | 19.3 | 37-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Y’allcomenow | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Carlisle Belle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Paved With Gold | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Smokin Platinum | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cerretalto | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sudden Surprise | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shamrock Kid | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | O Shea Can U See | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | T Loves a Fight | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Binkster | 4.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zonic | 6.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Catch a Bid | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Stellar Agent | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Belle Laura | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Comic Kitten | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dance Till Dawn | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Dignity | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Xanthique | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ebullient | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Varenka | 3.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Fancy That | 15.00 | 16.3 | 31-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Nonsensical | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cap de Creus | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Coronation Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Break Even | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Eyeinthesky | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Midnight Fantasy | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | My Galina | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bohemian Bourbon | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lyrical Lady | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’llhandalthecash | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | A Bit of Both | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Abyssinian | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Pickle Rick | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mine the Coin | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Exchequer | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Star of the West | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wicked Trick | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Storm Rider | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Zorbed | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dr. Devera’s Way | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ninja Dust | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Moonbounce | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Storm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Go Get That | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.