July 13, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Driven by History | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Omega Moon | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bondurant | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Patch | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Don’task Don’ttell | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eckersley | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Captivating Moon | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Burnside | 4.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Machtree | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Skycraft | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Epic (ARG) | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | La Negra Noche | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mysteriously | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Ferber | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Gotta B the Salsa | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Josephine Baker | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mom’s Red Lipstick | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Eye On the Finish | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Now Thats All | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Aunt Dorothy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Phoenix Attack | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Laura Attack | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hurricane Highway | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Firewater Jake | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Journeyman | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | P H Factor | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rhythmia | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tez | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Slippy | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Landofthepharaohs | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cornstarch | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dollar Blue | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Peruvian Boy | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Release the Heat | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Country Jazz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Watkins | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Breckenridge | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Charliecando | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Prime Nite | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Canihaveitlikethat | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King Snake | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mister Not Funny | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buttered Noodles | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Gray Blur | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Huey Attack | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fame Is Rough | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Hatoof S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Princesa Carolina | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dalika (GER) | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Indigo Gin | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ambassador Luna | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Story Time | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winning Envelope | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delta’s Kingdom | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spectralight (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Be Nimble | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Modesty H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Simply Breathless (GB) | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Remember Daisy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Na Pali Spirit | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Always Believe | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Vexatious | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maroubra (FR) | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oh So Terrible | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cascanueces | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Arlington H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Spooky Channel | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Cullum Road | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | My Bariley | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Great Day (ARG) | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Captivating Moon | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nobrag Justfact | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Picaro (CHI) | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bandua | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Botswana | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Artillery | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – American Derby
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Flying Scotsman | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Crafty Daddy | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Strong Will | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | The Last Zip | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Crime | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Faraway Kitten | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mick’s Star | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bundibunan | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | War Film | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Another Mystery | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rhythmia | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Conative | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cornstarch | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Thenextbestthing | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bell Ringer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Copper Fiddle | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ekaterinoslav | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Louie’s Kingdom | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cantrell Hill | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Cha Vez | 3.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bookie’s Blues | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cloud to Ground | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Watch Me Smok’em | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Drayke’s Channel | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vacation Lover | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stand With Honor | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Capernaum | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.