July 12, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Legion Storm | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oso Negro | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ummu Ummu Ummu | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Derby Memories | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | French Revolution | 1.60 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dreammaster | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Arguto | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Clonedsimmard | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | Crazy Life | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 2 | Danfusi | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 3 | Make Motime | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Curlin’s Legacy | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | The Happy Giant | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13A | 6 | Overland | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Daddy Knows | 1.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Klickitat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Worth a Shot | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Catorat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Prince of New York | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Jimmy Jazz | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Overlord | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Saltking | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Ferdinanda | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Dream Passage | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Tanya’s Gem | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Complicit | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Conquest Hardcandy | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5A | 3 | Pauseforthecause | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Held Accountable | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Viva Forever | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lord Simba | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Soul P Say | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Muddy | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dazzling Okie | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Orpheus (ARG) | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kahramani | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nolinski | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gorelli | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 5 | 5 | River of Dreams | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lotta Ott | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pure Wow | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mylastfirstkiss | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Apurate | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bird Tycoon | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Shabbos | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vast | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drop a Hint | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Harv Won’t Tap | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 13A | 7 | Curlin Road | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heavy Roller | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Dude | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Holiday Bonus | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Lincoln | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Felix in Fabula | 1.60 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dubby Dubbie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Dontblamerocket | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Our Way | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hay Dakota | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Applicator | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Filly Dilly | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Saloon Girl | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Noble Jewel | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 16 | 8 | Trouble for Skylar | 5.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Citizen Matzo | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Evan’s Nice Now | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Lem Me Have It | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Fancycase | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Short Pour | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hollywood Cat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tiffanys Freud | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tzipi | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Something Joyful | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Andarta | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | She’s Dreamin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cirque | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Irish Valor | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreamzapper | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Doups Point | 2.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Broadway Bay | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Fiery Opal | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Gemmy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Danebury | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Forbidden Apple S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Voodoo Song | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Offering Plan | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mr Havercamp | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Qurbaan | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hembree | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | First Premio | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Made You Look | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | March to the Arch | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gidu (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Doctor Mounty | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Fight Night | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Abby Normal | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | Scarlet’s Command | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Accabonac Harbor | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Summer Fantasy | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Don’t Tell Flora | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Freudycatfever | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Smart Throb | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Linda’s Ballet | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Winifred J | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Heartstrings | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Taniell’s Candy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Traci’s Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Minit Maus | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Prisoner’s Dilemma | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Happy Sophia | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.