July 7, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Nuclear Option | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Making a Marc | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Examiner | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gorgeous George | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tringale | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Student Body Left | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Home Base | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Insane Lifestyle | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Club Soda | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Full of Run | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fist of Rage | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Liberal Lunacy | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thirsty Betrayal | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Touch of Disney | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Afleet Spring | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Purely Boy | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Citali | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mucho Macho Dan | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shakurr | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Frost Or Frippery | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flight Mission | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Itsthebourbontalkn | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Sway | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lightscameraaction | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sparkling Champagn | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Makealitlemischief | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Appealing Audrey | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Russian Mafia | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gizmo | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sky Freak | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Grand Royale | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Valid Storm | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Musical Interest | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Idaho Tornado | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Musket Hunter | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tio Chuy | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Prince Attack | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | El Payaso | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | He’s Thunder | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Riv | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trappe Valley | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Royal Commish | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Point | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Strike Quiet | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gray Mensch | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bootleggin | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Remembermis | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Baroque | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Luck of the Draw | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Behind Enemy Lines | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | You Split Tens | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Andreas | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Changi | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Suspenders | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ginger Snap Dance | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dance | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dabinawa Dove | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocket Queen | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Izzy | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Diva Banker | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Templesis | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tomasita | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.