July 5, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Case Cracker | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shezahotmama | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Drama Run | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hey Hey | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catherine Eugenia | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prairie Chick | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Carmelo | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pistol Box | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Betwithbothhands | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speared | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jimmy D | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Justenufftuff | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Nook | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Warrior | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | J P’s Gia | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Away She Glows | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wayaway | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Da Mrs. | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tam | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Thenextbestthing | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Impressed | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Louie’s Kingdom | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Michael T | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Military Hop | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kissedthegirls | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bookie’s Blues | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | V Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Drayke’s Channel | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Lapis Storm | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Mora Valley | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Enchanted Sunrise | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speed to Victory | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Keeneasabean | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Go Yeowomen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | White Birch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Cocoa Parfait | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blazing Hero | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silent Fame | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Greeleys Ice | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Last Spring | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | King’s Castle | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Homer | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Marvelous Sky | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Wellfield | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Red Prince | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tims Hope | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Temple Zip | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Echoes of Laughter | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Insane Lifestyle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Industrialist | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jeggyjeggy | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drama Star | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Here Comes Kyle | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Defender | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Intrysting | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Party On Dude | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Jets a Ginnin | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Savvy Ally | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fort Marsh | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Konza Kandy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blues Mary | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Belle Brezing | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gray Owl | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Je Suis Belle | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mucha Mezquina | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Wishes | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.