July 4, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sea of Makebelieve | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buck Snort | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kielbasa | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Haney | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Luv Maker | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Landing Gear | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | G Road | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | The Remainder | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yabba Dabba Dude | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Diplome | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Johnny Chadda | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tornado Boy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sequins Storm | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mr D’s Way | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Papa Caliente | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Not Chopped Liver | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smokey Row Mac | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Timingiseverything | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Commander | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hide the Evidence | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Shogood | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pablo Del Monte | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spectacular Road | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kissthatbabygoodby | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tough Stuff | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Simsbury | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Welovecandy | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Exprompt (FR) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clear N Convincing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Rhythmia | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Student Body Left | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Arrival | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Never Even Called | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s Cheeky | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sea Rover | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Hello America | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Louie’s Kingdom | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Ready and Rich | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Thenextbestthing | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 9 | Wrath | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bold Paynter | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Minerunner | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hard Story | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Star of Kodiak | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ekaterinoslav | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Rustic Rick | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vacation Lover | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Fuelish Behavior | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Helen Hayes | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Prado’s Encore | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | My Jilly | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Samis Car | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Superstar Diva | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Logi | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kuringai | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Annie Time Girl | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Canton Comet | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Paulette | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Track Magic | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Word of Truth | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rock Can Tour | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cat’s Runaway | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prairie Chief | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Little Mighty Man | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crankshaft | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Unbridled Ruler | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | President Elect | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Swither’s Shortcut | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.