June 29, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dreaming Diamonds | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Eyed Girl | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spin to Gold | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Harry | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Went With the Wind | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Steam | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Indicating | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sheesa Pontiac | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Job Security | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fireball Shot | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Indian Counselor | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Autumn Ruler | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gorgeous in Rags | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sportster | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Calabasas | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | He’s Stylish | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Queen’s Mason | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Sorrell | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Forget | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Martial Eagle | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tell Your Daddy | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | World Tax War (IRE) | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candizar | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Roughin the City | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Echelon | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Intoxicating | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Moody Jim (IRE) | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cha Vez | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Free Ride Mulhall | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Private Boone | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Exemplar | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Beantown Boys | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rocky Tough | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hollywood Critic | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Iconic | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gray Sky | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Front Door | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Windycity | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Gisel | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Diamond Crazy | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Addison | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Indomitable Spirit | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mrs. Bucket | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harms Way | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tres Prinsesas | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Katie’s Belle | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | I’mthekatsmeow | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Broadway Diner | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Filliescan Talk | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | April’s No Fool | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Halfway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hot Copy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ruby Q | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Just a Dream | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Real News | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Nifty | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pyron | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Distant Shore | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frolic More | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hide the Demon | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sir Truebadour | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Calling | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tut’s Revenge | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dunph | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ry’s the Guy | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Preacher Power | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Battle of Memphis (IRE) | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | I Can Do Anything | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Speed Gun | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Discovered | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | St. Denman | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Haunt | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Salvator Mundi | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Franknjymme | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Nepal Up | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dashing Dan | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Last Strike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | True Loyalty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hurry Back | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Briar Jumper | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Elusive Mischief | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kowboy Karma | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Control Stake | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Petrov | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Transatlantic Kiss | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncontested | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | California Night | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Line Judge | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Warrior’s Club | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Battle Station | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Om | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Will Call | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Done Deal | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Totally Boss | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Undrafted | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jazzy Times | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Smart Remark | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Angaston | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Capture the Glory | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pleasantly Big | 30.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Manson (GB) | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Debutante S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Magic Dance | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indy Takes Charge | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cholula Lips | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Megan Marie | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Good Girl | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lady Glamour | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lady George | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Secretly Wicked | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Street Flyer | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rookie Salsa | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Rowdy Yates | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alec and Arthur | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Phantom Boss | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Verb | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Two Last Words | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Snell Yeah | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Silent Malice | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Finnick the Fierce | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jamming Cameron | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Zip Your Lip | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Passion Play | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fireball Jon | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | On d’Oro | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Beautiful Wall | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Icon | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | My America | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Musician | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thunder Kid | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Savino | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Make Room | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Third Edition | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Grand Meister | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bold Paynter | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.