June 28, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Magine | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ignis | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pick Up the Fone | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Windy City Kitty | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pearl Dragon | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prado Amore | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Better Begin | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Diamonds N Spurs | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Guinevere | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | River Gypsy | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Snap Hook | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grit and Glory | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zing Zang | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sassy King | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moonster | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Believeinholidays | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gray Nile | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Quite a Secret | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Marriage | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Orleans | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ronan | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Woody’s Reward | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sugar Streak | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Frigid | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Princess Kiah | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Noose | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Elusive d’Oro | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Deviant | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Crossing the Moon | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Apple Empire | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kowalski | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Twixy Cat | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Glass Eater | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Attachment Rate | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Runtech | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Swing West | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Classified Info | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Kenjilookslucky | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | D’guapo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Night Time | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Domonette | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | East Moon | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orageuse | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vanilla Cat | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Road Tiger | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trick of the Tail | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Julia’s Ready | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Ella | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Banshee Birdie | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Amandrea | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cubs Win | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Africa (FR) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Talbeya | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Turner Time | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Trappe Valley | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Niigon’s Glory | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Brerry | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Greeleys Charm | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cedar Creek | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stay Home | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Arden | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Flash Attack | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Notacatbutacard | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keyed On Top | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Distorted Ransom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Witted | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Artemus Bridge | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Summerduck | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Weiland | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Richard | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hooray for Harvey | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | He’s No Bull | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Felipe | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brush Country | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | She Love Me | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Misterbluesky | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Latent Revenge | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Navigator | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chaps | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kid Perfect | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blackout (FR) | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Leinster | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mister Maestro | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dragon Drew | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Honus | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Best of Greeley | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Johnny Obvious | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Hide the Demon | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Control Stake | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | D Squared | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Crawl From the Bar | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indigo Yankee | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Zeke | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Wild About Candy | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Firehorn | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Commandeering | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Undercover Lover | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cheytac | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Laser Loop | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Home Base | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Get the Prize | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flatout Winner | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Twelfth Labour | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Traveling | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Proschema | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Combination | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Galindo | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Carte Blanche | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Aquadini | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Comedian | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lullaby Bling | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | One for Richie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dabo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | High Crime | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Our Bay B Ruth | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Better Biz | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lemon Chill | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Confessing | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little Gemma | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildlife | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Folk Legend | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tizahra | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Headlining | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Elle M’a Souri (FR) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Brie’s Lucky Charm | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Palace Princess | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tynagh Spirit | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Temperit | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lemon’s Medaglia | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.