June 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Josie | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honorable Memory | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Weekend Fun | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spun Eazy | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fine One Won | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She’s All Wolfe | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | English Toffee | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Changes | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Misunderstood | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Profiteer | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fact Finding | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Soglio | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Third Day | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hawaakom | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mizzen Air | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Color Me Pretty | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Blue Magic | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Myositis Mystique | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Babaknowsevrything | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Shawhan | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Native Wahoo | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Trick | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Slick Silver | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Super Terrific | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Copper Fiddle | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kansas City Zip | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Written Permission | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Replete | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cuzi’mhappy | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lea Ridge | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | K C Against World | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Young Lochinvar | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lons Shackleford | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Majors Vindication | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Butter Hut | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Venkman | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Shell Fire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Nice of Me | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Grandezza | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Khairiya | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Demimondaine | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Arch Avenue | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Social Circle | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kim K | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Agi’s Cait | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carina | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jo Marie | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Net | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fun Paddy | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Big Torch Key | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kaziranga | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bundibunan | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Dabo | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tracksmith | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Red Island (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alliterative | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Proud as Punch | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thirsty Betrayal | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gigging | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Originaire (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tom’s Last General | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Avigale (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cornstarch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Carte Blanche | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Aquadini | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Proschema | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Magic Tapit | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silver Ride | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Honorable Treasure | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Principe Guilherme | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tiznoble | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Knights Key | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Mr Ashley | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Cove Blue | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr Darcy | 10.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rubus | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crosswalk | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Strolling | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 14 | Making a Marc | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 15 | Boyfriend Material | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Hunka Burning Love | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flat Out Beautiful | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Doby | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bird Dog | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ruling Empire | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stock Chain | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gray Hope | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moose Got Even | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hypersonic | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Paddy O’Dini | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Oh Bene | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grand Royale | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tizaghera | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Pitman Valley | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Enjoy the Journey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.