Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 23, 2019

June 23, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Extra Medium 5.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Tweezer (IRE) 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Aqualityindividual 3.50 5.2 10-1
7 7 Field Patrol 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Split the Wickets 6.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Merlin’s Song 6.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Zoomer 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Derby Memories 10.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Penalty Shot 10.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Right the Wrong 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Timbrook 12.00 9 17-1
11 11 Tauber 12.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Super Terrific 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Long Weekend 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 6 Samurai Cause 3.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Dennis’ Moment 5.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Silent Malice 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Pharoah Cat 6.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Ghostlore 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Two Chips 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Buttered Noodles 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Concord Fast 2.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Majestic Affair 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Sharp Art 3.00 4 8-1
6 6 Drena’s Star 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Fifth Title 4.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Trappezoid 8.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Destiny Over Fate 5.00 4 8-1
9 8 Thunderous Gem 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Shaharazad 8.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Miss Harry 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Maggie Pie 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Midnight Karma 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Nine Martinis 8.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Tryon Summer 6.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Tolly Ho 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Latest Version 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Call to Victory 3.00 3.6 7-1
12 12 Woodfin 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Ria Munk 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Small Moment 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Princesa Blanca 20.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Silver Kitten 3.50 7.7 14-1
4 4 Curlita 15.00 7.7 15-1
5 5 Saffira 10.00 8.7 16-1
11 11 Amazima 8.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Lynda D 30.00 9.6 18-1
13 13 Uriah’s Legacy 30.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 Talk Pretty 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Temperit 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Actress On Board 12.00 SCRATCH
17A 17 Rooney 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tactical Pursuit (IRE) 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Long Gray Line 3.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Sensational Sam 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Colombard 8.00 5.3 10-1
10 9 Drunken Fridays 20.00 5.6 10-1
9 8 Homefortheweekend 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Bode’s Maker 8.00 6 11-1
5 5 Moscow Minister 6.00 6.7 13-1
8 7 Lookin At Blessing 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 He’s No Bull 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Explorer 2.50 2.3 4-1
9 7 Hidden Ruler 8.00 5 9-1
6 5 Uber Kirk 5.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Seven Nation Army 10.00 6 11-1
4 3 Time On Target 10.00 6 11-1
5 4 Coltonator 12.00 6.4 12-1
10 8 Mo Zone 8.00 7.2 14-1
7 6 Stealth 6.00 8.1 15-1
3 2 Absolutely Aiden 15.00 8.1 15-1
12 10 Loopallu 12.00 8.3 16-1
13 11 Holly Blame 20.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Bebop Shoes 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Golden Tiger 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2A 1 Coach Rocks 5.00 3 6-1
9 6 Peru (GB) 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 4 True Dream 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Oh My 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Lantiz 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Sea Dream (BRZ) 8.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Arabella Bella 12.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Lounge Act 8.00 SCRATCH
8 7 La Signare (FR) 3.00 SCRATCH
10A 10 Room to Finish 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mihrab 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Miz Shelton 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Cool Arrow 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 6 Solid Wager 4.00 3.6 7-1
10 7 Heavy Roller 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Snapper Sinclair 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 4 Lookin for Eight 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Casino Star 10.00 4.9 9-1
11 8 Rocking the Boat 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Ballard High 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 December Seven 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Greeley and Ben 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 California Night 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Young Phillip 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Picasso 4.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Tench 10.00 4 8-1
5 4 Debating 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 3 Grit and Curiosity 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Bodefecta 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Dark Web 6.00 5.9 11-1
8 7 Sultry Samurai 6.00 6.8 13-1
13 11 Troubling Moon 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 1 Money On My Mind 20.00 8.1 15-1
10 8 Chasing History 30.00 8.7 16-1
12 10 Williams Creek 30.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Ol Grey Ghost 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Silver N Lai 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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