June 23, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Extra Medium | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tweezer (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aqualityindividual | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Field Patrol | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Split the Wickets | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Merlin’s Song | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zoomer | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Derby Memories | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Penalty Shot | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Right the Wrong | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Timbrook | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tauber | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Super Terrific | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Long Weekend | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Samurai Cause | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dennis’ Moment | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silent Malice | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pharoah Cat | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghostlore | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Two Chips | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Buttered Noodles | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Concord Fast | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Affair | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sharp Art | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Drena’s Star | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fifth Title | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trappezoid | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Destiny Over Fate | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thunderous Gem | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shaharazad | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Harry | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maggie Pie | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Karma | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Nine Martinis | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tryon Summer | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tolly Ho | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Latest Version | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Call to Victory | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Woodfin | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ria Munk | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Small Moment | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princesa Blanca | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silver Kitten | 3.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Curlita | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Saffira | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Amazima | 8.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lynda D | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Uriah’s Legacy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Talk Pretty | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Temperit | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Actress On Board | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17A | 17 | Rooney | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tactical Pursuit (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Long Gray Line | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sensational Sam | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Colombard | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Drunken Fridays | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Homefortheweekend | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bode’s Maker | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moscow Minister | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lookin At Blessing | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | He’s No Bull | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Explorer | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hidden Ruler | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Uber Kirk | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Nation Army | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Time On Target | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Coltonator | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mo Zone | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stealth | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Absolutely Aiden | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Loopallu | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Holly Blame | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bebop Shoes | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Golden Tiger | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 1 | Coach Rocks | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Peru (GB) | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | True Dream | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Oh My | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lantiz | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sea Dream (BRZ) | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arabella Bella | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Lounge Act | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | La Signare (FR) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10A | 10 | Room to Finish | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mihrab | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Miz Shelton | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Cool Arrow | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Solid Wager | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Heavy Roller | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snapper Sinclair | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lookin for Eight | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Casino Star | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Rocking the Boat | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ballard High | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | December Seven | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Greeley and Ben | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | California Night | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Young Phillip | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Picasso | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Tench | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Debating | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Grit and Curiosity | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bodefecta | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dark Web | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sultry Samurai | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Troubling Moon | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Money On My Mind | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Chasing History | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Williams Creek | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ol Grey Ghost | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Silver N Lai | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.