Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 22, 2019

June 22, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tobacco Road 2.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 The Sicarii 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Voo Doo Doc 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Ludington 4.50 4.5 9-1
6 6 I’m Busy 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Brush Country 12.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Charlie’sarchangel 4.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sandville 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Jerusalem 8.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Pioneer Dancer 5.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Shanghai Superfly 5.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Moment 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Goose Drank Wine 8.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Jacks Fire Balls 15.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Georgia Deputy 20.00 7.6 14-1
10 9 Harpers First Ride 15.00 9.5 18-1
9 9 Passion Play 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Whoa Nellie 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Istan Council 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Free Cover 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Catherinethegreat 3.50 4.2 8-1
5 5 Into Trouble 5.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Profound Legacy 12.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 Waving Flags 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
17 6 Morning Social 2.50 1.7 3-1
8 4 Oxburger 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 3 Whata Perfect Day 15.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Hellorhighwater 5.00 4.4 8-1
11 5 Cowboys Dream 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Parade Field 15.00 5.9 11-1
16 16 Cha Vez 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Third Edition 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Free Ride Mulhall 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Eight Ain’t Enough 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Sportster 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Callmecash 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bail Out 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Candizar 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sandy Lane Kitten 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Split the Wickets 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Big Beautiful Wall 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mad Grace 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 9 Charmin Dixie 5.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Romani 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Absolute Love 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Murika 4.50 5.5 10-1
10 10 British Invader (GB) 5.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Cimarron 4.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Turkmenistan 10.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Grats Road 5.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Stylitude 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Light of the World 3.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Dig Charlie Dig 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Our Stormin Norman 5.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Into a Hot Spot 2.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Psychoanalyze 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 All Around 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 His Giant 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Coworker 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Singapore Flash 20.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Lady’s Weekend 15.00 8.9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 J D’s Girl 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Urban Insight 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Meadow Dance 2.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Sworn Silence 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Fiber Optic 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Dave’s Baby Girl 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Full Orbit 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Broadway Cat 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Devilite 10.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 In the Mood 6.00 2.6 5-1
9 8 Cosmic Burst 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Red Dane (ITY) 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Divine Queen 3.50 4.1 8-1
3A 2 Youngest Daughter 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Boxwood 2.50 5.2 10-1
5 4 Total Control 8.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Clever Serve 5.00 6.4 12-1
10 9 She’s a Gypsy 12.00 8.3 16-1
2A 2 Valentine Wish 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
19 10 Rocky Tough 3.00 4.4 8-1
18 9 Midnight Tea Time 3.50 4.8 9-1
7 4 Funny Duck 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 3 Machtree 15.00 5.2 10-1
10 5 Kearny County 20.00 5.4 10-1
17 8 Own Agenda 5.00 5.5 10-1
3 2 Creative Courage 15.00 6.2 12-1
14 6 Golden Dragon 20.00 7 13-1
2 1 Altito 30.00 7.3 14-1
16 7 On Patrol 30.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Dontblamerocket 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cowboy Culture 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Keep Quiet (FR) 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Convict Pike 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Another 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Krewe Chief 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Factor This 3.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Sir Dudley Digges 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Neepawa 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Roxelana Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Covfefe 1.40 1.5 3-1
10 5 Mia Mischief 1.60 2.5 5-1
1 1 Awestruck 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Honey Bunny 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 4 Classy Act 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Ascot Day 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Astrollinthepark 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Upset Brewing 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Salt Bae 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Annathela 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Double Axel 3.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Take Charge Gina 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Bonnet 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Girlfriend Rocket 4.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Unsweet Tea 12.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Risky Mandate 5.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Proudly Pacific 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Dolce Andromeda 15.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Runway Starlet 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 New Hope Road 12.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Miss Moneypenny 20.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Generic Mark 20.00 9.2 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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