Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 21, 2019

June 21, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mylastfirstkiss 4.00 3 6-1
3 3 Wasabi Girl 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Green Destiny 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Frank’s Rockette 8.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Emily’s Oasis 4.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Symphony Hall 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Edgee Angel 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Flowers Tewmey 15.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Restless Rambler 3.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Data Driven 2.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Charge the Line 4.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Getoffmyback 4.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Bolita Boyz 4.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Fascilitator 5.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Union Colonel 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Crypto 4.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Pickens 4.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Shippingport 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Peace Achieved 5.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Field Pass 12.00 5.6 11-1
11 10 Axiomo 20.00 5.7 11-1
10 9 Belleau Wood 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Dream Palace 30.00 6.2 12-1
12 11 Billy Batts 4.50 6.4 12-1
4 4 Mr Tito’s 20.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Bahama Channel 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Night Time 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ghostlore 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Silent Malice 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Kowalski 15.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Money for Mischief 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Marie’s Mandate 1.40 2.5 5-1
1 1 Ladyofdragonstone 4.50 4.3 8-1
9 9 Leesburg Lady 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Won Lil Indian 10.00 5.1 10-1
12 11 Rose Larue 4.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Miss Fahrenheit 15.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Michigan Miss 15.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Dance the Day Away 20.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Analyze This Cat 20.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Miss Cabotage 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Big Idea 20.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Dusty Miller 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Italian Charm 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 1 Raising the Flag 3.00 3 6-1
8 6 River Echo (GB) 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Summer Revolution 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 U S Marshal 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 McCormick 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Hammerin Aamer 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Curlins Vow 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Kitten’s Cat 3.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Hay Dakota 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Musical America 5.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Exemplar 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Zambian 4.50 5.5 10-1
2 2 Cape Angel 10.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Machismo 20.00 6.4 12-1
11 10 Derby Champagne 12.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Just Be Frank 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 9 Chantmeupbaby 12.00 10.9 21-1
8 8 Bondurant 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Gray Sky 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Rocky Tough 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Watch Me Whip 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Freefall 4.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 General Kitten 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Croatian 3.50 4.8 9-1
4 4 Oro de Tejano 4.00 5.6 10-1
2 2 Soul of the Hero 8.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 American Sea 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 V Tach M. D. 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 New Year’s Luck 8.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Super Comet 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Where Paradise Lay 4.50 4.1 8-1
4 4 Classy John 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Lemniscate 8.00 6.1 11-1
3 3 Chase the Ghost 6.00 7 13-1
8 7 Carrier Landing 12.00 7.3 14-1
11 10 Wicked Indeed 4.50 7.6 14-1
12 11 Market King 12.00 7.6 14-1
10 9 Soap Bubble 12.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Breaking News 15.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Spin Lightning 30.00 9.8 18-1
6 6 One for Richie 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cave Run 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Clear for Action 3.50 4 7-1
5 5 Shakes Creek 4.50 4 8-1
1 1 Local Hero 8.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Almoreb 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Valycove 4.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Love Your Buttons 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 County Court 12.00 7.6 14-1
12 12 Sun Lover (GB) 8.00 7.7 14-1
11 11 Sambucca 20.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Alittlevodka 15.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Cheytac 15.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Tiz Trevor 20.00 8.4 16-1
13 13 King of Candy 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Navy Armed Guard 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Jailhouse Kitten 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Indigo Yankee 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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