Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 20, 2019

June 20, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bubba Bling 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Don’thatetheplayer 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Nucky 5.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Majestic John’s 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 My Mae Day 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Warrant Officer 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Feeling It 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Jay Jay Creed 15.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Arch Ability 12.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Street Trust 5.00 3 6-1
4 5 Flashy Jewel 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 6 Mineyerownmalone 3.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Pear Lemonade 6.00 4.2 8-1
1A 4 Above Board 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 2 Yes I See 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 7 Stuart Hall 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 1 Red Again 4.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Meantime 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Overanalyzfakenews 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Taylor’s Sense 4.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 A Man Called Boady 3.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Rage Away 5.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Way too Wicked 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Lighthouse Point 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Half Ours to Keep 6.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 12 Kiawah Sunset 2.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Just Fly 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 6 Mom’s Pass 3.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Yellen 4.00 4.1 8-1
12 11 Spartanka 12.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Fashionable Lady 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Fly So Pretty 5.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Abramax 15.00 6.4 12-1
10 9 Champagne Talking 15.00 6.8 13-1
11 10 Witez 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 8 Urban Diva 30.00 7.1 13-1
5 4 Fed Policy 20.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Minji 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lemon Scat 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mylastfirstkiss 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Beantown Boys 4.50 2.9 5-1
8 8 The Rock Says 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Tikhvin Flew 4.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Praetorian 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Mississippi 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 Paddock Pick 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Chess Chief 3.50 5.1 10-1
1 1 Rare Form 8.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Royal Medallion 30.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Irish Mischief 3.00 3 6-1
6 4 Hallawallah 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 3 Shanghai Rain 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 6 Take Charge Angel 3.00 4.2 8-1
3 1 Caliente Candy 15.00 4.8 9-1
9 7 Into Mystic 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 2 Shesomajestic 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 5 Mgr Treasure 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Into the South 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Thunderous Gem 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Ezmosh 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Sir Dudley Digges 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 5 Noble Commander 20.00 4.5 8-1
5 4 Zero Gravity 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Renaisance Frolic 10.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Devamani (FR) 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 My Boy Jack 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Colonelsdarktemper 20.00 5.7 11-1
11 9 Lamartine (BRZ) 12.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Cullum Road 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Bourbon Resolution 3.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Hawaakom 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Casino Star 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Survey 20.00 3 6-1
11 11 Midland 5.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Loveatturkeyclub 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Cliff’s Place 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Royal Edition 6.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Gambit 6.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Sevennotrump 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Alpha to Omega 8.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Titanium Black 20.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Wicked Max 12.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Graysshootingstar 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kentucky Dan 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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