June 20, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bubba Bling | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Don’thatetheplayer | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nucky | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Majestic John’s | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Mae Day | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warrant Officer | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Feeling It | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jay Jay Creed | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arch Ability | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Street Trust | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Flashy Jewel | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Mineyerownmalone | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pear Lemonade | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 4 | Above Board | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Yes I See | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Stuart Hall | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Red Again | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Meantime | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Overanalyzfakenews | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Taylor’s Sense | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A Man Called Boady | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rage Away | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Way too Wicked | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lighthouse Point | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Half Ours to Keep | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | Kiawah Sunset | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Fly | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mom’s Pass | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Yellen | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Spartanka | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fashionable Lady | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fly So Pretty | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Abramax | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Champagne Talking | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Witez | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Urban Diva | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fed Policy | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Minji | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lemon Scat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mylastfirstkiss | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Beantown Boys | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | The Rock Says | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tikhvin Flew | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Praetorian | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mississippi | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Paddock Pick | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chess Chief | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Form | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Medallion | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Irish Mischief | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hallawallah | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Shanghai Rain | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Take Charge Angel | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Caliente Candy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Into Mystic | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Shesomajestic | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mgr Treasure | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into the South | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Thunderous Gem | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Ezmosh | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sir Dudley Digges | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Noble Commander | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zero Gravity | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Renaisance Frolic | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Devamani (FR) | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Boy Jack | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cullum Road | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Resolution | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hawaakom | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Casino Star | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Survey | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Midland | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Loveatturkeyclub | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cliff’s Place | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Edition | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gambit | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sevennotrump | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Alpha to Omega | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Titanium Black | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wicked Max | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Graysshootingstar | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kentucky Dan | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.