June 16, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Seeds of Time | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Righteous Ruby | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Perfecta | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bronco Sally | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Harbor Lights | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cassidy Ave | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Scars Are Cool | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dinar | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hitch | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Panforte Di Siena | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Freeze Line | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Embellisher | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jacks Fire Balls | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Gentrified | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pat Daddy | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Buggy Brown | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tres Equis | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Futile | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Here’s Carlos | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ceeky | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Overcame | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mono | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Fantasy | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shang Shang Shang | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Headland | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Change of Control | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Iva | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mission From Elle | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Raintree Starlet | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Boxwood | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Winning Envelope | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Julius | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Out Beautiful | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Zapper Van Winkle | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Homeland Messa | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Warrior | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Plug and Play | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tizaghera | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Unbeknownst to Me | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Macho Madness | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Spackle | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Singsong Bird | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A. P. Princess | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Quite a Secret | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Holly Molly Dolly | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fire On High | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Traci’s Greeley | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blunt Force | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Woody’s Reward | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Natures Bounty | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Anima | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Live It Up | 50.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Made to Be | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Centerfold Angel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Jimmy Joe | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | British Humor | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cosmic Hallelujah | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Homeview | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rio Bueno | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Salt Air | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | True to Dixie | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hooray for Harvey | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bear Trappe | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tizpure | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Kid Lemuel | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | True Loyalty | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Broth | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Elgar | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Last Strike | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Take Charge d’Oro | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Just Like Richie | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Apreciado | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Proud as Punch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Jailhouse Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Face of Victory | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bundibunan | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Royal Medallion | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Chess Chief | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Beantown Boys | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 2 | Carrizo | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Credit | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lady of Luxury | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Good Creation | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flash n’ Dance | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Makealitlemischief | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Veiled Vixen | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Mgr Treasure | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | C C My Sis | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Shilah Baby | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yes It’s Ginger | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Dixieincandyland | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dreams Are Made | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Blinkers | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Freedom Passage | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Nikki Beach | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Liner | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Rubys Memory | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Headlining | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unsweet Tea | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Holiday Time | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sheza Rockstar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Becky’s Bluegrass | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Chikara | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.