June 15, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Life Mission | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Spirogyra | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Declined | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Half Shot | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tohui | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Island Song | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Keep a Eye On Mike | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Painismygain | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | A. K. Safari | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alma Derby | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Road to Peace | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11A | 9 | U. S. Warrior | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | He’s Stylish | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | World | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | El Capa Rojo | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Get Some Mo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Money On My Mind | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | High Road | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Private Message | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Doll Collection | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Tale | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Web o’ Gold | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sally’s Curlin | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Templuna | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lucky Union | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sara Sea | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | April Entry | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Letters to Belle | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Crow | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cummings | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Control Stake | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pete’s Play Call | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | He Hate Me | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Loose On the Town | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Floroplus | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Devils Halo | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Napier | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Innocent | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Enchanting Kitten | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bridaled Temper | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Joy of Treasure | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dalika (GER) | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sistas Ready | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Homefieldadvantage | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Matt Winn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Money | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nolo Contesto | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Signalman | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Armistice Day | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Limonite | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Knicks Go | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Proverb | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Wise Dan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | First Premio | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Admission Office | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Parlor | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bourbon Resolution | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Itsinthepost (FR) | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | March to the Arch | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holiday Stone | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hot Springs | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Siem Riep | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cullum Road | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Get Western | 50.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | All Right | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | El Picaro (CHI) | 12.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Noble Commander | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Inspector Lynley | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Fleur De Lis H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Elate | 1.60 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She’s a Julie | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Auspicious Babe | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Go Google Yourself | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Skeptic | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stephen Foster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Seeking the Soul | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gift Box | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tom’s d’Etat | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Runaway Ghost | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Yoshida (JPN) | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Quip | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alkhaatam | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King Zachary | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirstforlife | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rated R Superstar | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tenfold | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Exulting | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Regret S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Winter Sunset | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hard Legacy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Princesa Carolina | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Varenka | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Belle Laura | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Delta’s Kingdom | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gamblin Train | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fortunate Girl | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Choate Bridge | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hungry Kitten | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Crafty’s Dream | 50.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – President Of The United Arab Emirates Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | EASTER MAN | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | QUICK AND RICH | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | RB TEXAS HOLD EM | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | UPTOWN CRUISEDIRECTOR | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | MADJIKMAN | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | THESS IS AWESOME | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | MIZZDORA | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | BELLFASTT | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | PADDYS DAY | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | RISKY RED | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Game Day Decision | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shorely | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cadron Flats | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Thundershook | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Professional | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Greeley Can Win | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rum Bobby | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Newcomer | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dixie Zapper | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tantalizing | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vencedora | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Released | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Copper Fiddle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Young Lochinvar | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Venkman | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.