June 14, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | By Your Side | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | El Cochito | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Basin | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Curlin | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Verb | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bodecream | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nano | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Winsalot | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Arch Avenue | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Art Buff | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Ballad | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Move | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Destiny’s Darling | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | W. B. Smudge | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Double Tuff | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Icatiro | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ted W | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ruler of the Nile | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Candyrock | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bajan Cash | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Daddy’s Gone | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bryzzo | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Again | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sensational Sam | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Regal Look | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Millwood | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tizabreeze | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Top Credentials | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sergeant McNerney | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 12A | 11 | Stack Em High | 15.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Starlin | 15.00 | 15 | 28-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lethal Levy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Rock On Kitten | 1.80 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Go Get That | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Super Silver | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sugar Dog Fox | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | West of Ireland | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Let’s Dial Minnie | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Carbon Zero | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honos Man | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin High | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Frequent Traveler | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Higher Authority | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Zoomer | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sportster | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Candizar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Plug and Play | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Goose Drank Wine | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Peachy | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mistress At Sea | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Devil’s Envy | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swinging Bridge | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wosie | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gianna’s Gift | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mischievious Lass | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Moon | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flatoutandfoxy | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mississippi Coast | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Syrah | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sheesa Pontiac | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Data Damsel | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moonfield | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nautia | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Double Oaked | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeley and Ariana | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Perfectly Mattie | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | B Deb’s Fortune | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Canton Comet | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Ficanas (GB) | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skamania | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pastime | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | V J’s Bet | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Riverside Walk (GB) | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Calamity Jane | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coexistence | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dance Rhythms | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’t Stop Maria | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Got Even | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Unstabled | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Malibu Wood | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Tickle | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aviator Parks | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Dog | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Tonbo | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Risky Town | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Buster Brown Boy | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bango Box | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mark My Way | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Giant | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Due to His Charm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Opportunistic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Ransack | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.