Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 14, 2019

June 14, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 By Your Side 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 El Cochito 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Basin 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Lucky Curlin 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Verb 3.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Bodecream 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Nano 12.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Sir Winsalot 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Arch Avenue 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Flat Awesome Jenny 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Art Buff 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 War Ballad 4.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Lucky Move 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Destiny’s Darling 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 W. B. Smudge 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 2 Double Tuff 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Icatiro 3.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Ted W 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Ruler of the Nile 4.00 4 7-1
4 3 Candyrock 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Bajan Cash 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Daddy’s Gone 4.00 4 7-1
2 2 Bryzzo 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Lemon Again 5.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Sensational Sam 3.50 4.7 9-1
8 7 Regal Look 15.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Millwood 10.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Tizabreeze 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 9 Top Credentials 15.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Sergeant McNerney 15.00 8.2 15-1
12A 11 Stack Em High 15.00 14 26-1
4A 4 Starlin 15.00 15 28-1
6 6 Lethal Levy 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Rock On Kitten 1.80 5.2 10-1
10 9 Go Get That 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Super Silver 5.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Sugar Dog Fox 15.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 West of Ireland 6.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Let’s Dial Minnie 12.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Carbon Zero 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Honos Man 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Lookin High 30.00 7.7 14-1
11 10 Frequent Traveler 30.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Higher Authority 3.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Zoomer 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Sportster 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Candizar 15.00 SCRATCH
15A 15 Plug and Play 3.00 SCRATCH
16A 16 Goose Drank Wine 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Peachy 3.00 4 8-1
8 8 Mistress At Sea 4.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Devil’s Envy 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Swinging Bridge 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Wosie 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Gianna’s Gift 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Mischievious Lass 4.50 6.2 12-1
2 2 Bella Moon 8.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Flatoutandfoxy 12.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mississippi Coast 4.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Syrah 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Sheesa Pontiac 4.50 4.8 9-1
11 10 Data Damsel 3.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Moonfield 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Nautia 4.50 6 11-1
10 9 Double Oaked 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Greeley and Ariana 20.00 8.2 15-1
8 7 Perfectly Mattie 12.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 B Deb’s Fortune 20.00 9.8 19-1
7 7 Canton Comet 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Ficanas (GB) 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 3 Skamania 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Pastime 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 V J’s Bet 4.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Riverside Walk (GB) 8.00 5.9 11-1
10 9 Calamity Jane 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 2 Coexistence 3.50 6.8 13-1
5 4 Dance Rhythms 15.00 7 13-1
8 7 Juju’s Specialgirl 20.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Don’t Stop Maria 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Got Even 4.00 2.3 4-1
12 11 Unstabled 3.00 3 6-1
9 9 Malibu Wood 3.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mr. Tickle 6.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Aviator Parks 30.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Star Dog 12.00 6.8 13-1
13 12 Tonbo 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Risky Town 20.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Buster Brown Boy 8.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Bango Box 12.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Mark My Way 30.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Silver Giant 12.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Due to His Charm 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Opportunistic 12.00 SCRATCH
15A 15 Ransack 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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