June 8, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bigmancan | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cheeseburger | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Halfmoon Reef | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zyramid | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snell Yeah | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nucky | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Ransomed | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Day by Day | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foxy Mischief | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hidenseek Sally | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Lunar Approach | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unfading Beauty | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Game Time Decision | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Magical | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maybe Wicked | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s a Gypsy | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Special Relativity | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Greeley | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Dilly Dally Darby | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Triple Kapalua | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Whale | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Don’teatmycookies | 1.80 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Molly’s Game | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pinotage | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indicating | 3.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Atruevision | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Estrela Cadente | 2.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 8 | Gold Standard | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Our Bay B Ruth | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Academy Gal | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Confessing | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Princesa Blanca | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tizahra | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Wildlife | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Gorgeous in Rags | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Hanna Jo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Lynda D | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Silver Kitten | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Boca Bloom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lady Rosalie (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Simply Put | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Runway Starlet | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Brassy and Sassy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Super Terrific | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Light of the World | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | On d’Oro | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | I’m Looking Up | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Better Charge It | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kansas City Zip | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Benny | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Paddy O’Dini | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Claytnthelionheart | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Tracker | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rich’s Rags | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Jacks Fire Balls | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Julius | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Paddock Pick | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brush Country | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mine My Time | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carter Cat | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Edgar | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little Kansas | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Make Noise | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Misterbluesky | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | One for Richie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Cosmic Code | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Cause I’m Edgy | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delcapem | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Road Tiger | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | New Roo | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Julia’s Ready | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Be Nimble | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | City Diva | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Talbeya | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Belle Laura | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dalika (GER) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Delta’s Kingdom | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Kettle Valley | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Solomini | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Conquest Windycity | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Combatant | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Matrooh | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kershaw | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | December Seven | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Retirement Fund | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Powerful Ally | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Peck | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Storm Runner | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Altito | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Front Door | 30.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Catdaddy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Limari | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mom’s On Strike | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Promise of Spring | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Phantom Opening | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vagabond Princess | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smart Shot | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coco Channel | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smart Emma | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Stave | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Straight Shot | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | New Frontier | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Keepin It Classy | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ready and Rich | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Debating | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Admiral Brown | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saddle Bar | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not Very Gentle | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | King of the Testo | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Suspect | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | U. S. Warrior | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ice Sphere | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Special Reserve | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bobby Axelrod | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | First Things First | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Grit and Curiosity | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.