June 7, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Josie | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Song River | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pranked | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Rosa Drive | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Magic Dance | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Milli Starr | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Grandgran | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Colombard | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | He’s No Bull | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Felipe | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charles T | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moscow Minister | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Off Sixes | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Stave | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sultry | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Frolic | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Valentine Wish | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Special Relativity | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Miss Altamira | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cascanueces | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Way too Wicked | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Who’syourfavorite | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Run This Town | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Alex’s Heights | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Zydeco | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moose Got Even | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wise to Listen | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spect No Mercy | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fayetteville | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hitters Park | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Maestro | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kid Perfect | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clouded Judgement | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Souperfast | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chief Hosa | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Rock | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midwest Justice | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Johnny Obvious | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Astro Empire | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Summerduck | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Because It’s Time | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Garey Park | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sparkys Surprise | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Justenufftuff | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jingle Me This | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Utmost Intensity | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Air | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Grace’s Drama | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sugar Cube | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Babaknowsevrything | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Evening Tide | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sun Dress | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Secret Trick | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Katie the Cutie | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Fooch | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vogt | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cohete Rojo | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chaps | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Seven Nation Army | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Stage Left | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Clear to Here | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hargus | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Time On Target | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Just Might | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Honus | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Stormin El Prado | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sekondi | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Lillet | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bling Springsteen | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Marie’s Mandate | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Passion’s Image | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Promised Fame | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Girl On a Mission | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Touch Blue | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sugar Streak | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Northern Heart | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hassle | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Betty’s Trinity | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Don’t Dally | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.