June 6, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Alec and Arthur | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Secretly Wicked | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Monedas de Oro | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Street Flyer | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jamming Cameron | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Megan Marie | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hard Code | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | La Femme Royale | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gemini Journey | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Starlight Express | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tenpins Tempo | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Courtmewithcarats | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parking Ticket | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alittlecomplicated | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pocket Personality | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jacktastic | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Laser Loop | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trappezoid | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Undercover Lover | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Westwood Proud | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cheytac | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sambucca | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5 | Street Trust | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Pear Lemonade | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Candy Carlos | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Gettysburg | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Curlins Vow | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Mono | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Satellite | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mark My Way | SCRATCH | |||
| 5 | 5 | Hay Dakota | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Nileator | SCRATCH | |||
| 2 | 2 | Timbrook | SCRATCH | |||
| 9 | 9 | Slim Shadey (GB) | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bird Dog | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Judge Stanton | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Homeview | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Clipboard Money | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gambit | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ruling Empire | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Hypersonic | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Wicked Gem | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | More Than Stature | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Westgate | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kinchman | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pitman Valley | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ike Walker | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bow and Arrow | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rich Daddy | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Italian Charm | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Chief Know It All | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | U S Marshal | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | California Swing | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Switheral | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shut the Box | SCRATCH | |||
| 3 | 3 | Imperative | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lady Mamba | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Focused | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Even Beat | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nocturnal Mission | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Avenida Manana | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vinca | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Domonette | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bohemian Bourbon | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Flat Meadow | SCRATCH | |||
| 5 | 5 | Africa (FR) | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Fancy Fox | SCRATCH | |||
| 2 | 2 | Libby Knows | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Grade | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sea Shark | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Midland | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Linemaker | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brightworthy | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tramore Bay | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Humor | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pull My Chain | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Young Lochinvar | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Survey | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.