June 2, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Concord Fast | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Art | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Adios Muchacho | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Limation | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Shut the Box | SCRATCH | |||
| 3A | 3 | Majestic Affair | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Temple Fur | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Love On Tides | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cubs Win | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Christmas Sky | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Applique | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Haynesfest | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | Holly Go Lightly | SCRATCH | |||
| 8 | 8 | Tell Your Mama | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Top Mention | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stuart Hall | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rollin Smoke | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ghost Story | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aizhai | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mike the Man | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Armament | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fightress | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tap That Cat | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mucha Mezquina | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spin to Gold | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nine Martinis | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thea Bee | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Buywon Getwon | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Crafty Daddy | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | J Zar | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mick’s Star | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Forloveofcountry | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Landofthepharaohs | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faraway Kitten | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Knicks Go | SCRATCH | |||
| 2 | 2 | Dunph | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Celia’s Song | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Aurelia Factor | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frond | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Primary Cause | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | She Beast | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Believe in Victory | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Destiny’s Darling | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Flatout Winner | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Copper Fiddle | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Encinitas | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pirate’s Punch | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Michael T | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miracle Hill | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rahfee Town | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tauber | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One More Dream | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unbeknownst to Me | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Written Permission | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lostinthemoment | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Jo Marie | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | With Dignity | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Perfect Reins | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | What a Fox | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tiz Ella | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Broadway Cat | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fun Paddy | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She Rocks the Look | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Goodbye Earl | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Ruby Notion | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morticia | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Excessivespending | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ms Meshak | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surrender Now | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | On Probation | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Noblame | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Golden Notion | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Queen’s Mason | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Young Phillip | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Passion Play | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Jerusalem | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Super Comet | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Job Security | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hometown Salute | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Masai Man | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Legacy | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Made in America | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Make Room | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.