May 31, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Meantime | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Again | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge d’Oro | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | V Tach M. D. | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Regal Look | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Paynt Your Eggs | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mississippi Coast | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sheza Handfull | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Five Star Factor | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nautia | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Steam | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bode On Tap | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Biddy Duke | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honorable Memory | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speed On Tap | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Strike | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indy Takes Charge | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Fly | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Better Begin | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Wosie | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Be a Lady | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Have No Fear | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | All the Juice | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kojo’s Queen | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hello Linda | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Take Charge Erica | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Enforceable | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Deviant | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Samurai Cause | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Two Dot | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Silent Malice | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rowdy Yates | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warrant Officer | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bad Little Beast | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | Scandalous Court | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Amandrea | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ginny B | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Folly | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bronco Sally | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tryon Summer | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sheesa Pontiac | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Phone | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Naughty Factor | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Headland | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Highland Lass | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Good Move | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sterling Miss | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Emboldened | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Pretty Greeley | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Rubus | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Twelfth Labour | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Loopallu | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Who’s in Charge | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bourbon Calling | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Soaring Bird | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Coltonator | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Beemie Award | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rare Form | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Chaps | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bella Bella | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Trophy Doll (IRE) | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gianna’s Gift | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hope Wins | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Khairiya | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Endowment | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Taken Back | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Fern | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pass It On | SCRATCH | |||
| 10 | 10 | Cassidy Ave | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.