May 30, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Beantown Boys | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Colour Guard | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Verve’s Humor | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | And Seek | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mississippi | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sargeant Drive | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Payday Too | SCRATCH | |||
| 6 | 6 | California Swing | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | Speed App | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 6 | Pow | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moti | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Loveatturkeyclub | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Front Page | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Daddy’s On Strike | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Letting Off Steam | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gentrified | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pat Daddy | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | W. B. Smudge | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ceeky | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Distorted Ransom | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tres Equis | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Overcame | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Containment | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Ella Brown | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Anima | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Our Petunia | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Leesburg Lady | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bling Springsteen | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Natures Bounty | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blue Sky in Dixie | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Katie’s Belle | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Miss Bodie | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Made to Be | SCRATCH | |||
| 10 | 10 | Lillet | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zeke | 30.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shakes Creek | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King Valero | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | On Patrol | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bemma’s Boy | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love Your Buttons | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Almoreb | SCRATCH | |||
| 8 | 8 | Alittlevodka | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Colombard | SCRATCH | |||
| 7 | 7 | Briar Jumper | SCRATCH | |||
| 10 | 10 | Sekondi | SCRATCH | |||
| 9 | 9 | Clear for Action | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | McCormick | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | County Court | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Club Car | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blip Says Bye | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Unsweet Tea | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | La Chancla | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Soluna | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Moneypenny | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mt. Brave | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Istan Again | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Complex Analysis | 10.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Centerfold Angel | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Line Judge | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Ashley | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Transatlantic Kiss | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strolling | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Principe Guilherme | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ike | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Home Base | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Making a Marc | SCRATCH | |||
| 8 | 8 | Tiz Mischief | SCRATCH | |||
| 1 | 1 | Texas Wedge | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Freudian Finish | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Speed to Victory | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Holiday Time | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emrata | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Double Axel | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Palace Princess | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Live It Up | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aspens Little Zip | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Worthington | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | Cloche | SCRATCH | |||
| 9 | 9 | Kiss More | SCRATCH | |||
| 7 | 7 | Stylishly | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.