May 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Maid of Iron | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gold Zephyr | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Fahrenheit | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devil’s Envy | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Classy Justice | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dance the Day Away | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Passionate Star | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Americangypsyrose | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tizdaneful | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Derecho Warrior | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Homefortheweekend | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gran Red | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lethal Levy | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Audubon Wood | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rickhouse | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Starlin | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rahway | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lessons From Avery | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lantiz | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kallio | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Barrier Island | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whispering Speaker | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Jerrid | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Tickle | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Shot | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bango Box | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Star Dog | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Giant | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Buster Brown Boy | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aviator Parks | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shakedown | SCRATCH | |||
| 6 | 6 | Shocking Blue | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Wild Road | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hooray for Harvey | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freemore | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rough Justice | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Leo | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Wicked Max | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gordie | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wellfield | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pocho’s Dream | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rockyshack | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strafford | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Divine Desire | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ruler of the Nile | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drunken Fridays | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Iron | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Astro Empire | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Paxos | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Twinsanity | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eternal Force | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Michelles Fault | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Daddy’s Melody | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trick of the Tail | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zurlin | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Breakfast Pond | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Halfway | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Small Moment | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | She’s Hot Today | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kimberly Frances | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boundless Joy | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cloche | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Lady Warbucks | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Emrata | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bump Bailey | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classy John | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tobacco Road | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Combination | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Whiskey Echo | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soap Bubble | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Breaking News | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ace Destroyer | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sovereign Impact | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thunderous Gem | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | He’s Stylish | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I Can Do Anything | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hurricane Jake | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Declined | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unsurpassable | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shorely | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Professional | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get Some Mo | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roughin the City | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spiritus Invictus | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Super Comet | SCRATCH | |||
| 10 | 10 | I’m Looking Up | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Bobby Axelrod | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Road to Peace | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.