May 26, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dreaming Diamonds | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Moon | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peachy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Romani | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Swinging Bridge | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Harry | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indicating | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Julius | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Better Charge It | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Historian | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Silver | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stolen Thunder | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Grit and Glory | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honos Man | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Silverzar | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forecastle | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Estrela Cadente | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Had Enough K P | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Moonfield | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Syrah | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blue Ridge Girl | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Greeley and Ariana | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfectly Mattie | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Lady Dowry | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Marquee Moment | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Preacher Power | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frolic More | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | St. Denman | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz McNamara | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Discovered | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Battle of Memphis (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Get Western | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Drapers Guild (GB) | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Little Kansas | SCRATCH | |||
| 16 | 16 | And Seek | SCRATCH | |||
| 17 | 17 | Beantown Boys | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Farat | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | California Swing | SCRATCH | |||
| 5 | 5 | Hartel | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Caloric | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Passport to Chaos | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Lewys Vaporizer | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Brerry | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Niigon’s Glory | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Louisiana Brown | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stay Home | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Buggy Brown | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rock n’ Candy | SCRATCH | |||
| 2 | 2 | Neil’s Diamond | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sandville | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Morning Social | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Rock Says | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Runnin’ Ray | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12B | 11 | Calabasas | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classic Road | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13B | 12 | Hitch | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ol Grey Ghost | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Indian Counselor | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unveiling | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lea Ridge | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sportster | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | Seek the Peak | SCRATCH | |||
| 9 | 9 | Marsac | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Neepawa | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Krewe Chief | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zero Gravity | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Create Again | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Machtree | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Take That for Data | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sun Lover (GB) | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Golden Dragon | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Sir Dudley Digges | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | Gray Sky | SCRATCH | |||
| 7 | 7 | Near Gold (GB) | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Kearny County | SCRATCH | |||
| 6 | 6 | Factor This | SCRATCH | |||
| 13 | 13 | Sentry | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Into the South | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jennemily | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shesomajestic | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Free Cover | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Into Mystic | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Talbeya | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gold Credit | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kim K | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady of Luxury | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | She’s Got It All | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | War Ballad | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mgr Treasure | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | The Aurelia Factor | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | Destiny Over Fate | SCRATCH | |||
| 15 | 15 | Frond | SCRATCH | |||
| 16 | 16 | Thunderous Gem | SCRATCH | |||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Vomba | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | First Wave | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freedom Passage | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rushingirl | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rubys Memory | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rebeccas Truth | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seized | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Headlining | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Double Axel | SCRATCH | |||
| 11 | 11 | Kiss More | SCRATCH | |||
| 4 | 4 | Chikara | SCRATCH | |||
| 12 | 12 | Unsweet Tea | SCRATCH | |||
| 15 | 15 | Soluna | SCRATCH | |||
| 9 | 9 | Becky’s Bluegrass | SCRATCH | |||
| 14 | 14 | Holiday Time | SCRATCH | |||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.