May 19, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Art Buff | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Marriage | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Quite a Secret | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Girl On a Mission | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Won Lil Indian | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Laughing Water | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Michigan Miss | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Honorable Treasure | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Exemplar | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Belle Tapisserie | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiznoble | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Adulator | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr Darcy | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Infuse | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Harbor Lights | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shezappealing | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arch Avenue | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mad Grace | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Turkmenistan | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Charmin Dixie | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Seeds of Time | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ipanema Beach | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Just Grace | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt’s Honey | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Estrela Cadente | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mimi’s Ruby Bobby | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nautia | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | One Wise Lady | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pepper Them Girl | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13A | 13 | My Sixth Sense | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Proud as Punch | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Galindo | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Defender | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Lord Wimborne (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Award Winner | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cambre | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bundibunan | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | J Zar | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Proschema | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Medallion | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Originaire (IRE) | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kaziranga | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Island (IRE) | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Factor Around | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Gisel | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Made to Be | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Hannah | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Lady Locker | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Traci’s Greeley | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Runway Starlet | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grand Slam Getaway | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Golden Driller | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Overanalyzfakenews | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Home It Tiz | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honduras | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cheytac | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True to Dixie | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She Love Me | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tizpure | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Rocky Tough | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ballard High | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Utmost | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Line Judge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Solid Wager | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Emmaus (IRE) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Dot Matrix | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cowboy Culture | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cummings | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sniper Kitten | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ezmosh | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dubby Dubbie | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rose’s Vision | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Greeley and Ben | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Oro de Tejano | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Johny’s Bobby | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Charles T | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Artemus Bridge | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Knight’s Cross | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Its Yes | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Half Ours to Keep | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | New Year’s Luck | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Seek the Peak | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Intoxicating | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Kid Lemuel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Oxburger | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bail Out | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Sorrell | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lake Nakuru | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Big Beautiful Wall | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lisbon | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Avigale (IRE) | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whata Perfect Day | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Legacy | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hellorhighwater | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.