May 18, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady Warrior | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Devine | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baylor | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | U Turn the Page | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kingsbury Dream | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | R Four O One K | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Not Chopped Liver | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Santa Americana | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Ike | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Carnoustie | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hide the Evidence | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Landing Gear | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | New Rules | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lool Beh | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nurse Sadie | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lillet | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Me too Mo | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Field Daisey | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sister Ruler | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hana Highway | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tapizart | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Light of the World | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bold Paynter | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ronamo | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Majestic Day | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cornstarch | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Eastside Boy | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Archiemyboy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Farat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Pont Du Gard | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Surf Shack | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Burnside | 2.50 | 1.9 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Rio Seco | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sailing Solo | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Campioni | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | American Heritage | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gangsta Girl | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Kenai Cool | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Amazing Annie | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin At Vanessa | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Night Flower | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sharperthanme | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dabinawa Dove | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ghaaleb Royale | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mora Valley | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ronan | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lizz a Bee | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Joyful Night | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scarlet Position | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Jersey | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stopshoppingamy | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Run Wrightaway | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Beauty | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shes Just Capital | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twilight Warrior | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sharing a Laugh | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Victory Rose | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Margarita Attack | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dream of Hero | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Track Magic | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Roar of the Lion | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Maligator | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Summer Castle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Round Hill | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Maxus | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Orcus | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Volgograd | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Jimmy D | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Tonbo | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Speared | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sacred Legacy | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Good Intent | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Pamir | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | All Strikes | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.