May 11, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wilbo | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storm Advisory | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Ride | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Petrov | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Ashley | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Darley | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Altar of Speed | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She Rocks the Look | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Brassy and Sassy | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cafe Mischief | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Peachy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Stylitude | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Sauce On Side | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Absolute Love | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Northern Fern | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | British Invader (GB) | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Murika | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Grats Road | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Aife | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Superduper Sky | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Cleopatra | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moonlight Train | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zena Rules | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | C Islandsurprise | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stina | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hickory Hill | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | W. B. Smudge | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Griff | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bajan Cash | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taruca | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Overcame | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Awesome Fu | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Here’s Carlos | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Our Alibi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | King of Candy | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Croatian | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | One Last Strike | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wetumka | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Violent Storm | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crupi’s Pizza Dom | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Solo Drink | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Impossible Mission | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Royal Edition | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eskenforit | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Pow | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Wild Road | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cliff’s Place | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Daddy’s On Strike | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brilliant Decision | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Falls Road | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rockyshack | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Tipazar | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Doll Collection | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Misled | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rumandice | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Academy Gal | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Liner | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Kiss More | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cause I’m Edgy | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | It Is the Season | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Union | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Summer of Love | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Solomini | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hawaakom | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kershaw | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fort Peck | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Paladar | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Han Sense | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mo’s Mojo | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | McCormick | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Raising the Flag | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Funny Duck | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mamzelle Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Iva | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Fantasy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Chelsea Cloisters | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Kim K | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Old and Costly | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Abyssinian | 3.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Catherinethegreat | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Play On | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Queen of Bermuda (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Raintree Starlet | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Shesomajestic | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Change of Control | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Morissette | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Barracuda | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Blip Says Bye | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | High Road | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Violent Lady | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ava’s Charm | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sail On | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Blinkers | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Templuna | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dos Vinos | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Boca Bloom | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | With Dignity | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.