May 11, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gangsta Girl | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Club Soda | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Spicy Meatball | 1.40 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Jimmy At Last | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Prince Abubu | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Captain Carnegie | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Prairie Chick | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Pure Blarney | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Devil’s Rose | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Valiant Lady | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Ventastic | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rachelgotstephen | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lu Sea | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Well Maid | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Wishes | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Countess St Michel | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | A J Pacer | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Running Vicky | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honey Hearts | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oriental Lady | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baylor | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | M C Squared | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Green | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Riv | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cast Iron | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Hawk’s Image | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Croce d’Oro | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Savemethelastdance | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bootleggin | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dollar Blue | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Defender | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Colombard | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Landofthepharaohs | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | P H Factor | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conative | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Americandy | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Allegiance | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hero Tiger | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Richiesonarampage | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pleasant Street | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Country Cool | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | French Minded | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magician’s Bags | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Return of the Rock | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Dragon | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ready to Fight | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dashing Derek | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Hanshin Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Reride | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Goneghost | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lanier | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eckersley | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Richiesinthehouse | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nun the Less | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Anthony | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Revved Up | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Machtree | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gita’s Lad | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | What’s Up Dude | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Sharp Witted | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Weiland | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ohio Player | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Demon | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Echoes of Laughter | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Asongforyou | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dazzling Truths | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jeggyjeggy | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Warriors Gem | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deano | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Intonation | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shackleford Road | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | I Love to Race | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Meghan | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Appealing Audrey | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tupelo Hon E | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ghaaleb’s Magic | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bird Key | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Detour | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sky Freak | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gentle Touch | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lori’s Legacy | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go Yeowomen | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Carissa Crismas | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.