May 10, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Viva Forever | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Indian Paint | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Princess Warrior | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bonnie Arch | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Munchkin Money | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Na Pali Spirit | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Shanghai Superfly | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hooray for Harvey | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Praetorian | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moti | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Goose Drank Wine | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Change Direction | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Super Silver | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kinchman | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Have No Fear | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Fahrenheit | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maid of Iron | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dulce Puella | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Analyze This Cat | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hassle | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Dance the Day Away | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Classy Justice | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ice for That Burn | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Americangypsyrose | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ginny B | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tula | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Folly | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bronco Sally | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sheza Handfull | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | C C My Sis | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | El Bonito | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jerrid | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Solar Maximus | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Dog | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Snickerboxer | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Garey Park | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ogee’s Ekati | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sabbatarian | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Buster Brown Boy | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lighthouse Point | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | V Tach M. D. | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Say It Ain’t So | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Challenge | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rage Away | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Felipe | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sergeant McNerney | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Match Play | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Lewys Vaporizer | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Turner Time | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Brerry | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Anechoic | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cedar Creek | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neil’s Diamond | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stay Home | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Believeinholidays | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Croatian | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Uber Kirk | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Holly Blame | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lngtermrelationshp | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Saintly Samurai | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gray Nile | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Laser Loop | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ghost Story | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Traveling | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Honus | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Loopallu | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Vogt | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dom Carlos (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Just Might | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cohete Rojo | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ace Destroyer | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gins and Tins | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quick Entry | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr. Edgar | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Westwood Proud | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.