May 4, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curate | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Crow | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Control Stake | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Loose On the Town | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Recount | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kowboy Karma | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zipp On By | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | American Anthem | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | General Downs | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 5 | King Zachary | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Conquest Tsunami | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 2 | My Boy Jack | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 3 | War Giant | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Thirstforlife | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | He’s Stylish | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Young Phillip | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Surooj | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Palmer’s Way | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | I’m Looking Up | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Admiral Brown | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Awesome Tracker | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Kneedeepinsnow | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zoe’s Delight | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Saddle Bar | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Phantom Currency | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Fortin Hill | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hidden Scroll | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | High Crime | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Borracho | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Youvesaiditall | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mischievous Bird | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miltontown | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zorb | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chase the Ghost | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lexitonian | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Johny’s Bobby | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | Temperit | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 18 | Sugar Love | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Choate Bridge | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tizahra | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tynagh Spirit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Brie’s Lucky Charm | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Gold Standard | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Silver Kitten | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | She’s Got Moves | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Michelles Fault | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Zurlin | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Live Young | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Hungry Kitten | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Senora Gato | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Princesa Blanca | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lady Trish’s Dream (GB) | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Encore Kitten | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Noble Legacy | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Humana Distaff S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Marley’s Freedom | 1.40 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Amy’s Challenge | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spiced Perfection | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Talk Veuve to Me | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mia Mischief | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Emboldened | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spring in the Wind | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Proctor’s Ledge | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daddy Is a Legend | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Precieuse (IRE) | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Valedictorian | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Capla Temptress (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beau Recall (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Got Stormy | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take These Chains (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Environs (GB) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Raven’s Lady (GB) | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Limousine Liberal | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Whitmore | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mitole | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Do Share | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Promises Fulfilled | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Warrior’s Club | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Uncontested | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Uno Mas Modelo | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Still Having Fun | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild Shot | 50.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Majestic Dunhill | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Ram Trucks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | A Thread of Blue | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Casa Creed | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Henley’s Joy | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Marquee Prince | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Avie’s Flatter | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seismic Wave | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Social Paranoia | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Forever Mo | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Digital Age (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Louder Than Bombs | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | The Black Album (FR) | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Weekly Call | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | War Film | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg And E And Ku
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Market King | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Global Campaign | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Instagrand | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dunph | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Manny Wah | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Last Judgment | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr Money Bags | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dream Maker | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tobacco Road | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Frolic More | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr. Money | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Everfast | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Durkin’s Call | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Hog Creek Hustle | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Captain Von Trapp | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Bricks and Mortar | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Qurbaan | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Synchrony | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Prime Attraction | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Markitoff | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Next Shares | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Raging Bull (FR) | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ticonderoga | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Multiplier | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clyde’s Image | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sabador (FR) | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Breaking the Rules | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | March to the Arch | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Omaha Beach | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Haikal | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 14 | Game Winner | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Improbable | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Code of Honor | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Win Win Win | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 17 | 15 | Roadster | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War of Will | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vekoma | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tacitus | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Maximum Security | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 18 | 16 | Long Range Toddy | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | By My Standards | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cutting Humor | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tax | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 20 | 18 | Country House | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 19 | 17 | Spinoff | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Plus Que Parfait | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 21 | 19 | Bodexpress | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gray Magician | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | Master Fencer (JPN) | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Great Success | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Hoffa’s Union | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Admire | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bandon Woods | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Royal Mesa | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Get the Prize | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Limonite | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Dragon | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aquadini | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | And Seek | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tapit Wise | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ranger Up | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rotation | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Felix the Fox | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Morning Social | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Speed App | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tony Small | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Parade Field | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Thetrashmanscoming | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Methodical | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | All About Will | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Silverzar | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.