May 4, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Oscarific | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Rivzinthehouse | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Magic Dragon | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Vapor Viper | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kyzan | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Legendary Larry | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Camalus | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Volgograd | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Im the Best I Know | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lee’s Luck | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Prince Arlo | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Supermans Cape | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sacramento Q | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pistol Box | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Papa Caliente | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Cave Run | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Senor Blanco | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Samurai | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Al Taweel | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Travel West | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bulldog of Bergen | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Andrew the Giant | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Orcus | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Round Hill | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sacred Legacy | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High On Sugar | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speared | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Intent | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maxus | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | On My Toes | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Deep Breath (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Antalya | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jukebox Money | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fringe | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maid for Mischief | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baylor | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Night Flower | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 2.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kenai Cool | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Queens Day Victory | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Miss Izzy | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glen’s My Friend | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Emmastwinklingstar | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Not Chopped Liver | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Curby | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Barnyard Fiddler | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Santa Americana | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Forgot to Forget | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr D’s Way | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Irish Proud | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Buck Snort | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smokey Row Mac | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Heisfancy | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Devil’s Rule | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Fire | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled Ruler | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dust Bowl | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Charming | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Suprise Cat | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dark Ninja | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Thunderous Gem | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | O’Keeffe | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | W W Fitzy | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gray Owl | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lavina | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gizmo | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Esther | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ragatagtag | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Karate Hottie | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tapizart | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Journeyman | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Impeachableoffense | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Old Fort | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orbert | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Slippy | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bookie’s Blues | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bold Paynter | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Another Mystery | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gunnar | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.