May 2, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Winyah Bay | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2B | 9 | Alcools | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 4 | Salty Snapper | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lady Delaware | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Memorable | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Deviant | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Snell Yeah | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Neverblink | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Enforceable | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Baytown Legend | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Supreme Aura | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | He’s Bankable | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cowboy Rhythm | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chief Know It All | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr Darcy | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Strong Yen | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Altito | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Small Moment | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Grandezza | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Majestic Rose | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Awesome One | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Second Coming | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trust in Love | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sweet Addison | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | She Takes Heart | 4.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Evening Tide | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lurey An | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Katie the Cutie | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grats Road | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Native Wahoo | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sun Dress | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Morty | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Rubus | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Violent Storm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Extrordinary Jerry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mississippi | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ghost Story | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Face of Victory | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Voting Control | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Armistice Day | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Penalty | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Battle of Memphis (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Valycove | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clear for Action | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Jimbo | 50.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Pillar Mountain (IRE) | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ecru | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Anima | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Won Lil Indian | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Paigely | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | J D’s Girl | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pickle Back | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classical Magic | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Passion’s Image | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s a Blossom | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Big Legacy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cha Mono | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Bourne in Nixa | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swamp Ruler | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Buggy Brown | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stately Oak | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Walking Stick | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arch You Ready | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Monday Confession | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sharm | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Opening Verse Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Hollywood Hideaway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sabador (FR) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | All Right | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Uno Mas Modelo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hot Springs | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | First Premio | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Monarchs Glen (GB) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hembree | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Om | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ballagh Rocks | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kencumin (FR) | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Siem Riep | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Parlor | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Profiteer | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Social Circle | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Houston Strong | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ipanema Beach | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Righteous Ruby | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Data Damsel | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bode On Tap | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cassidy Ave | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Unbridled Sidney S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Painting Corners | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Surrender Now | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morticia | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Luvin Bullies | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | A Little Bit Me | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ruby Notion | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ms Meshak | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lady Suebee | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Excessivespending | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Spy Ring (IRE) | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Boomerang Baby | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ezra | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Aizhai | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lethal Levy | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Strong Current | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bryzzo | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Homefortheweekend | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Taylor’s Sense | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Top Mention | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rickhouse | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Audubon Wood | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.