May 1, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Arrowsphere | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Swinging Bridge | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unfading Beauty | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Moon | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Her Kitty | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Molly’s Game | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sensational Zip | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dig Charlie Dig | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Sea | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oro de Tejano | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Drummond | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Charlie’sarchangel | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge d’Oro | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Biddy Duke | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Ms Headley | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 6 | Nite Brite | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Candy’s Dream | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Eloquent Lady | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 9 | My Doughnut | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fixer Upper | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Honorable Memory | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Baytown Babe | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Griff | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Bondurant | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Hay Dakota | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Go Navy Go | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lieutenant Colonel | 30.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zambian | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | War Bond | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nileator | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Klassie Connect | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Valkyrie | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | British Invader (GB) | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morgan’s David | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Greeley and Ariana | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pebble Slinger | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Canton Comet | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Perfectly Mattie | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Riddlemeree | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Big Blue Magic | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jokasa | 15.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Uknowiaintlying | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Native Indy | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Budget Cut | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Open Invitation | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chocolate Cherries | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stealth | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chaps | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fluminense | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hargus | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Look | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dixie Highway | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Enlisting | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Amazing Audrey | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Snuck Out | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Napier | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smile Awhile | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Asticou Trail | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Homefieldadvantage | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Screenwriter | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pep | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sugar Bow | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Julia’s Ready | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Kentucky Juvenile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nayibeth | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Mean Sophia | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Twirling Owen | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alec and Arthur | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marva | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rookie Salsa | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Secretly Wicked | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Dot | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Clongiffen | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Newcomer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Slick It Up | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Roan Like the Wind | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kinchman | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Gray Hope | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | D Squared | 2.50 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sevennotrump | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not Now Rand | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Graysshootingstar | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alltheway to Cairo | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Freefall | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Loveatturkeyclub | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cadron Flats | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Doby | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spect No Mercy | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wise to Listen | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.