April 12, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hardaway | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aizhai | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tactical Pursuit (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seventy Seventycat | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drummond | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cheytac | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | It’s Game Time | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Three Twins | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Our Girl Abby | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Air | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Myositis Mystique | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lusty Git Yer Gun | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sohni | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mischievious Kat | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kalispell | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Parking Ticket | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alittlebourbon | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Hassle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Adheretome | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Sway | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baladera | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | America’s Queen | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Yes I’s a Miller | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Memories Eternal | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Nerissa | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Analyze This Cat | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Temperance Road | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fleetress | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Don’t Dally | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Markle | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Thirsty Betrayal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Armistice Day | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sambacer | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | King Ottokar | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Shootin the Breeze | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bundibunan | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Demarchelier (GB) | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Island (IRE) | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Albireo | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Logical Myth | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Award Winner | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bluegrass Parkway | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baytown Jimbo | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dabo | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pico Entry | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Love Point | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Unicorn | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Sally’s Curlin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | High Road | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Classical Magic | 10.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Smooth With a Kick | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sundaysatthebeach | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sport’n Forty | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Grandezza | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Small Moment | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anima | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Copper Town | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Crow | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Mr Ashley | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Wentz | 10.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Curate | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hot Shot Kid | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Balandeen | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | He Hate Me | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smart Remark | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Limestone Turf Sprint S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Vinca | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | My Gal Betty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | O’Keeffe | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Chelsea Cloisters | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ginger Nut (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Play On | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Thriving (GB) | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beechwood Ella (IRE) | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blame the Frog | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bohemian Bourbon | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Weabie | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Snow Blossom | 50.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Stillwater Cove | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Raintree Starlet | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Elle’s Town | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Acker | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sonneteer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Just Whistle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Boy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kershaw | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Casses Story | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Telekinesis | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Raising the Flag | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Darcy | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Autostrade | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ballard High | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tiz Mischief | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Own Agenda | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Broken Promise | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Maker’s 46 Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hembree | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.4 | 3-1 | |||||
| 1 | 1 | Raging Bull (FR) | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Delta Prince | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doctor Mounty | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heart to Heart | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Qurbaan | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Clyde’s Image | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blinkers | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Violent Lady | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Made to Be | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Palomita | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sail On | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Doll Collection | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Funny Song | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bonnet | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Golden Garter | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Puffer Fish | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baby Seal | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.