April 11, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss Harry | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Dreaming Diamonds | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Swinging Bridge | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fashion’s Touch | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Moon | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saints’ Girl | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cocktail Party | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Into the Breach | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Morning Social | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sandville | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1.5 | 3-1 | |||||
| 2 | 2 | Light of the World | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stealth | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Cadet | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Just a Shot Away | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Soul of the Hero | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Paladar | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sargeant Drive | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | |||||
| 2 | 2 | Tabia | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mississippi | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Believeinholidays | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ghost Story | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Quarky | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | It’s Game Time | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | A Man Called Boady | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Over Protective | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Please Sit Down | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | |||||
| 10 | 9 | Firewater Jake | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Poppy Joe Rocks | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | J Zar | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Luck of the Draw | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Handsome Honey | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tom’s Last General | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Soulmate | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Moon Launch | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Strike Play | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lero Lero | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Unity | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Yes It’s Bonifide | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Optimal | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Knight Disruptor | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wilderness Gate | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Komrad | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruling Empire | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Odie | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Baron of Bluegrass | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Call Me Cadillac | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Big Bruiser | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rock Me | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kamacha | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rockyshack | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Weneedtotalk | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.4 | 3-1 | |||||
| 5 | 4 | Saguaro Row | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Full Orbit | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | East Moon | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Classy Music | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Miss Pinkerton | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shackleford County | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Data Damsel | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Desert Ride | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Gamblin Train | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Diva Day | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mintd (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fortunate Girl | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Connectivity | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Furiously Fast | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Story Time | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mission From Elle | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gizmo | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pep | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Not Orbinary | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | City Diva | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Libby Knows | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Channel Princess | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mississippi Coast | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Talk Veuve to Me | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Everyonelovesjimmy | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | Awestruck | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Summer Sunday | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Upset Brewing | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Treble | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Secret Path | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Field Patrol | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lake Nakuru | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rock On Kitten | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eons | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Third Edition | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Proud as Punch | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Exult | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tez | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cha Vez | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Revenio | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gunslinger (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Blazin Liason | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pressonregardless | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.