April 4, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Biddy Duke | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Letsstaypositive | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Nayibeth | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kertara | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mean Sophia | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quality H Two O | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sirenic | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lady Archa | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Allaboutaprincess | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nurse Maggie Sue | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Third Eye | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | My Good Girl | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Talk You Out of It | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Alexa G | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Wynter Echo | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Baytown Babe | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Honey Bunny | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zena Rules | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dance Rhythms | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Kindness | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Femme Royale | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Morty | 20.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Private Boone | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Wild One Forever | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Moti | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Market Garden | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Impossible Mission | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Zydeco | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Alibi | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sassy King | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Watch Cairo | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lemon Again | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Golden Challenge | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The Kid in Syd | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lielielie | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bartolome Murillo | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Whisper Barrow | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Storm Rider | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Itsthebourbontalkn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Zaevion | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Turner Time | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brerry | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Distorted Ransom | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Taruca | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Lewys Vaporizer | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Man of Blues | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Bonito | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Ambidextrous Alex | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bud’s Bayonet | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | El Jake O | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Northern Ranger | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sellwood | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Wild Shot | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bond Street (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Instilled Regard | 1.20 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eckersley | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Machtree | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Say the Word | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bird’s Eye View | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Frankincense | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Firey Speech | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sue Me | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Admission Office | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Front Door | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Misspent Youth | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Kearny County | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Remarkable Soul | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Crafty’s Dream | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ulele | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | High Regard | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fun Finder | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Enliven | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Eyed Girl | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Goodprofit | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shacklette | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Tiz Ella | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Kettle Valley | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Palisades Turf Sprint S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hawaiian Noises | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Chelsea Cloisters | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Front Office | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Gladiator King | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Yes I Am Free | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Abyssinian | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bulletin | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vogt | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Strike Silver | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vivid Verse | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Real News | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Joyful Heart | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tobacco Road | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mick’s Star | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Dom Carlos (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Uncapped | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Faith Healer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Five Star Factor | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tolly Ho | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Showed Up Late | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Trophy Doll (IRE) | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Channing Road | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ipanema Beach | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Harry | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Genuwine | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pepper Them Girl | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Enzio | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Giro Kate | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Nautia | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Urban Kat | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Go Stellaire | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.