March 17, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Expert | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1.5 | 3-1 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | Trustworthy | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Potomac | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Binkster | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Where’s Rudy | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Our Honor | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fitzwillie | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shiloh Lane | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seediskid | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Boy | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eddy Dirt | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Huracan | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Freudian Analyst | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shook Em Up | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Gander S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ventus | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Captain Frost | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Kosciuszko | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pipes | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Durkin’s Call | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kadens Courage | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Stilts | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Tocsin | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Superhighway | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Manipulate | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Halstaat | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tariff Tantrum | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spice Road | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beyond Discreet | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | Smiles From Sadie | 0.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Turn and Bern | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peaches and Spice | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | I Saw It All | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Light the Posse | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Deputy Flag | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Preston Court | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Roseboro | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Suremoney | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Freudian Sip | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Apex Predator | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Well in Tune | 50.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Roll Tide | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | La Cat Warrior | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Flatexcel | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Take It to Scale | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Adirondack Dream | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Manifest Destiny | 20.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ultimateenticement | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hopper Dropper | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Prince Slaughter | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Speightful Kitten | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Ready to Escape | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morning Breez | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Candid Desire | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sicilia Mike | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sudden Surprise | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Five Star Bunt | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | P J Advantage | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Formal Start | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Aly’s Courage | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Sage | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Midnitesalright | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | First Forever | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tousled | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charming Cara | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Queendom | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Flat Out Funky | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Emmy Knows | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crick | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flattering Eyes | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Intersect | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Marie’s Tuff | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.