February 21, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Noble Behavior | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Run for Boston | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blessed Honour | 15.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Theresa’s Boy | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Freudian Analyst | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Quintarelli | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Keepmyeyeontheboys | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Moon Tweet | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Up At Dawn | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fancy That | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Reigning Fire | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Team Win | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dynamite Kitten | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Sweet Like Char | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Third Card Down | 15.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Eight Minute Ellie | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tequila Sunday | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Carlisle Belle | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Needs No Ice | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Stonewalker | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Distorted News | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Big Bennys Tribute | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Free Coffee | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Mom I Forgive You | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Avalina | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Xanthique | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Power Boss | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fear No One | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Into a Hot Spot | 2.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Fitzwillie | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Suremoney | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Seethisquick | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | No No Noah | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | One River Place | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Starship Zeus | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Royal Albert Hall (GB) | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Eagle Pass | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unsullied | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Expert | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Regal Quality | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hokulea | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Like a Pro | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Mischief | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Regal Retort | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mrs. Crews | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Figure It Out | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Went With the Wind | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12A | 12 | Blewitt | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Uncle Sigh | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bon Raison | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Storm Prophet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Allured | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Gio d’Oro | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | House Limit | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Business Cycle | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Nicodemus | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Monteleone | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Prompt | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.