February 18, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Smile | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Heartbustingirl | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rattle the Stars | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Analyze With Honor | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Sweep | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alphardini | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Swaggerette | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Domain | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Admiral Blue | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Call Me | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fillet of Sole | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Never Nevermore | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proximate to Power | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Thank You So Much | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Wanna Be Regal | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My First Gal | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Expense | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | First Dawn | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Low Is Laine | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Youth Gone Wild | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roses From Ben | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ferncourt | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Expert | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hero’s Welcome | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trustworthy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Potomac | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dark N Cloudy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dr. Hipp | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double Deep | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mystical Song | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Pickle Rick | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grumps Little Tots | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dillon Rocks | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Castle Casanova | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chilly in Charge | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Habitue | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Girl Annie | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beyond Discreet | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Elegant Jem | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | That’s Smart | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Squeeze | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cirque | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Peaches and Spice | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Big Mountain | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Pipes | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Kadens Courage | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2.1 | 4-1 | |||||
| 6 | 5 | London House | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beachside | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9A | 7 | Rally Cap | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Trance | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin to Be Loved | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Strive for a Cure | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Riken | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hollie Hughes S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Honor Up | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Build to Suit | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Syndergaard | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Runaway Lute | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Bavaro | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Eye Luv Lulu | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Celtic Chaos | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tribecca | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sudden Surprise | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bluegrass Express | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Third Card Down | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Itsjustnotyourday | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Cape Ann | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | My Victoria Rose | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Wisconsin Night | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hattie L | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Party in the Sand | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Parlapiano | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Claire’s Kitty | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Zecha | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Tiffany’s Vision | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.